Upstream decarbonization through a carbon takeback obligation: An affordable backstop climate policy
Upstream decarbonization through a carbon takeback obligation: An affordable backstop climate policy
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DOI：
10.1016/j.joule.2021.10.012
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发表时间：
2021-10
期刊：
影响因子：
39.8
通讯作者：
Stuart Jenkins;E. Mitchell-Larson;Matthew C. Ives;S. Haszeldine;M. Allen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Stuart Jenkins;E. Mitchell-Larson;Matthew C. Ives;S. Haszeldine;M. Allen
在全球对碳密集型能源和产品的需求没有立即、快速和前所未有的减少的情况下，在本世纪中叶之前，每年将需要捕获和永久储存数十亿吨二氧化碳（CO2），以实现巴黎协定的目标。然而，对绝对减排和更便宜、更临时的碳储存形式的关注意味着永久性二氧化碳处置仍然缺乏投资，目前部署的二氧化碳处置仅占全球能源和工业过程（EIP）排放量的0.1%。这一储存部分，即化石EIP排放中被捕获和永久储存的百分比，必须达到100%，以阻止EIP排放导致进一步的全球变暖。在这里，我们表明，通过对化石碳生产商和进口商实施渐进式碳回收义务（CTBO），强制增加储存部分，可以实现具有成本效益的过渡。通过模拟综合评估模型（IAM）的行为，并对永久碳储存的成本采用保守的假设，我们表明，CTBO政策的预计经济范围成本与采用全球碳价格的IAM实现类似雄心勃勃的气候目标的相关成本相当，如果与CTBO相关的感知政策风险成本低于与政治决定的碳价格相关的成本，则可能更低。与全球碳价格相比，上游CTBO具有治理简单、速度快和可控性强的优势：CTBO下的等效碳价格受到直接空气捕获和储存成本的可靠限制，确保部署与持续的化石燃料使用保持同步，降低惩罚性碳价格或更严厉措施的风险，以淘汰最后一批排放。当与近期减少二氧化碳产量的措施相结合时，CTBO可以提供一条可行的途径，到本世纪中叶实现与1.5°C一致的净零排放。
In the absence of immediate, rapid, and unprecedented reduction in global demand for carbon-intensive energy and products, the capture and permanent storage of billions of tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) annually will be needed before mid-century to meet Paris Agreement goals. Yet the focus on absolute emission reductions and cheaper, more temporary forms of carbon storage means that permanent CO2disposal remains starved of investment, currently deployed to capture only about 0.1% of global Energy and Industrial Process (EIP) emissions. This stored fraction, the percentage of fossil EIP emissions that are captured and permanently stored, must reach 100% to stop EIP emissions causing further global warming. Here, we show that a cost-effective transition can occur by mandating an increasing stored fraction through a progressive carbon takeback obligation (CTBO) on fossil carbon producers and importers. By emulating the behavior of an integrated assessment model (IAM) and employing conservative assumptions for the costs of permanent carbon storage, we show that projected economy-wide costs of a CTBO policy are comparable to the costs associated with achieving similarly ambitious climate goals in IAMs employing a global carbon price, or potentially lower if the perceived policy risk cost associated with a CTBO is lower than that associated with a politically determined carbon price. Compared with a global carbon price, an upstream CTBO has advantages of simple governance, speed, and controllability: equivalent carbon prices under a CTBO are reliably capped by the cost of direct air capture and storage, by ensuring deployment keeps pace with continued fossil fuel use, reducing the risk of punitive carbon prices or more draconian measures being needed to drive out the final tranche of emissions. When combined with measures to reduce CO2production in the near-term, a CTBO could deliver a viable pathway to achieving net-zero emissions consistent with 1.5°C by mid-century.