Developed and developing world contributions to climate system change based on carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions
Developed and developing world contributions to climate system change based on carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions
复制标题
基于二氧化碳、甲烷和一氧化二氮排放的发达国家和发展中国家对气候系统变化的贡献
DOI：
10.1007/s00376-015-5141-4
复制
发表时间：
2016-05-01
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Tian, Di
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wei, Ting;Dong, Wenjie;Tian, Di
国际气候谈判的关键问题之一，是根据“共同但有区别的责任”原则，为所有国家制定减排目标。这一提法主要取决于发达国家和发展中国家对历史气候变化的责任的量化归属。利用社区地球系统模型（CESM），我们估计了发达国家和发展中国家的二氧化碳，甲烷和一氧化二氮的排放量，从1850年到2005年的气候变化的责任。结果表明，发达国家贡献约53%-61%，发展中国家贡献约39%-47%，全球气温上升，海洋上层变暖，北极海冰减少，冻土退化。此外，从1850年到2005年，这些变化的空间异质性主要归因于发达国家的温室气体排放。尽管气候模式和所使用的外部强迫仍存在不确定性，但发达国家的温室气体排放是世纪观测到的气候系统变化的主要贡献者。
One of the key issues in international climate negotiations is the formulation of targets for emissions reduction for all countries based on the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities". This formulation depends primarily on the quantitative attribution of the responsibilities of developed and developing countries for historical climate change. Using the Commuity Earth System Model (CESM), we estimate the responsibilities of developed countries and developing countries for climatic change from 1850 to 2005 using their carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions. The results indicate that developed countries contribute approximately 53%-61%, and developing countries approximately 39%-47%, to the increase in global air temperature, upper oceanic warming, sea-ice reduction in the NH, and permafrost degradation. In addition, the spatial heterogeneity of these changes from 1850 to 2005 is primarily attributed to the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in developed countries. Although uncertainties remain in the climate model and the external forcings used, GHG emissions in developed countries are the major contributor to the observed climate system changes in the 20th century.