Estimating the protective effect of case isolation with transmission tree reconstruction during the Ebola outbreak in Nigeria, 2014
Estimating the protective effect of case isolation with transmission tree reconstruction during the Ebola outbreak in Nigeria, 2014
复制标题
DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2020.0498
复制
发表时间：
2020-08-26
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Nishiura, Hiroshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chan, Yat Hin;Nishiura, Hiroshi
2014-2016年埃博拉疫情期间使用的主流干预措施是接触者追踪和病例隔离。 2014-2016年尼日利亚埃博拉疫情的爆发证明了控制干预措施的有效性，住院率达100%。在这里，我们的目标是明确估计病例隔离的保护效果，重建发病和住院的时间事件以及传播网络。我们表明病例隔离减少了繁殖数并缩短了序列间隔。采用贝叶斯推理结合马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法进行参数估计，假设繁殖数随时间呈指数下降，病例隔离的保护效果估计为39.7%（95%可信区间：2.4%-82.1%）。还估计了病例隔离的个体保护效果，表明其有效性取决于速度，即从发病到住院的时间。
The mainstream interventions used during the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic were contact tracing and case isolation. The Ebola outbreak in Nigeria that formed part of the 2014-2016 epidemic demonstrated the effectiveness of control interventions with a 100% hospitalization rate. Here, we aim to explicitly estimate the protective effect of case isolation, reconstructing the time events of onset of illness and hospitalization as well as the transmission network. We show that case isolation reduced the reproduction number and shortened the serial interval. Employing Bayesian inference with the Markov chain Monte Carlo method for parameter estimation and assuming that the reproduction number exponentially declines over time, the protective effect of case isolation was estimated to be 39.7% (95% credible interval: 2.4%-82.1%). The individual protective effect of case isolation was also estimated, showing that the effectiveness was dependent on the speed, i.e. the time from onset of illness to hospitalization.