The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK-猫眼课题宝

英国脱欧对外国投资英国的影响

DOI：

发表时间：

2016

期刊：

影响因子：

通讯作者：

中科院分区：

文献类型：

作者：

Swati Dhingra;G. Ottaviano;T. Sampson;J. V. Reenen

·外国直接投资(FDI)提高了国家生产率，从而提高了产出和工资。跨国公司带来了更好的技术和管理诀窍，这直接提高了他们的业务产出。外国直接投资也刺激国内公司改进--例如，通过更强大的供应链和更激烈的竞争。·英国拥有超过1万亿GB的外国直接投资存量，其中约一半来自欧盟其他成员国。英国对外国投资者的部分吸引力在于，它提供了进入欧盟单一市场的便利条件。英国退欧后，与欧盟的贸易成本上升可能会抑制FDI。·我们的新经验分析着眼于过去30年34个经合组织国家(包括英国)之间的双边外国直接投资流动。考虑到许多其他因素，基线估计是，欧盟成员国身份使外国直接投资增加了约28%。·欧盟成员国身份对FDI的积极影响是强劲的，在不同的统计假设下，范围在14%到38%之间。这些影响的大小也与英国FDI流动与一组匹配的控制国之间的比较一致。·数据显示，达成一项全面的贸易协议--例如，让瑞士加入欧洲自由贸易协会--不会显著减少英国脱欧对外国直接投资的负面影响。·评估外国直接投资减少对收入的影响是复杂的。我们使用现有的对FDI如何影响增长的宏观经济估计，以及对英国退欧影响的非常保守的估计--未来十年FDI将下降22%。我们计算出，英国脱欧导致的FDI下降可能导致实际收入下降3.4%-约相当于每个家庭GDP的2200 GB。由于FDI减少造成的收入损失比我们估计的1.3%到2.6%的贸易减少造成的静态损失要大。·对英国脱欧对英国汽车业影响的估计表明，英国的汽车产量将下降18.1万辆(12%)，价格将上涨2.5%。即使英国达成了一项全面的贸易协议，并将关税维持在零水平，汽车产量也将减少3.6万辆。·英国金融服务业是吸引外国直接投资最多的国家。在英国退欧后，对“单一护照”特权的限制将导致活动大幅减少。此外，英国将无法在欧洲法院挑战欧盟的法规。免责声明：经济…中心

• Foreign direct investment (FDI) raises national productivity and therefore output and wages. Multinational firms bring in better technological and managerial know-how, which directly raises output in their operations. FDI also stimulates domestic firms to improve – for example, through stronger supply chains and tougher competition. • The UK has an FDI stock of over £1 trillion, about half of which is from other members of the European Union (EU). Part of the UK's attractiveness for foreign investors is that it brings easy access to the EU's Single Market. After Brexit, higher trade costs with the EU would be likely to depress FDI. • Our new empirical analysis looks at bilateral FDI flows between 34 OECD countries (including the UK) over the last three decades. Controlling for many other factors, the baseline estimate is that EU membership has raised FDI by about 28%. • The positive effect of EU membership on FDI is robust, ranging between 14% and 38% under different statistical assumptions. The size of these effects is also consistent with comparisons between UK FDI flows and a set of matched control countries. • Striking a comprehensive trade deal – for example, joining Switzerland in the European Free Trade Association – would not significantly reduce the negative effects of Brexit on FDI, according to the data. • Assessing the impact of lower FDI on income is complex. We use existing macroeconomic estimates of how FDI affects growth combined with a very conservative estimate of the impact of Brexit – a 22% fall in FDI over the next decade. We calculate that a Brexit-induced fall in FDI could cause a 3.4% decline in real income – about £2,200 of GDP per household. The income losses due to lower FDI are larger than our estimates of static losses due to lower trade of 1.3% to 2.6%. • Estimates of the impact of Brexit on the UK's car industry imply that UK production would fall by 181,000 cars (12%) and prices would rise by 2.5%. Even if the UK manages a comprehensive trade deal and keeps tariffs at zero, production would fall by 36,000 cars. • The UK's financial services industry is the largest recipient of FDI. Restrictions on 'single passport' privileges following Brexit, would lead to big cuts in activity. Furthermore, the UK would be unable to challenge EU regulations at the European Court of Justice. Disclaimer: The Centre for Economic …

The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK

英国脱欧对外国投资英国的影响

文献摘要

被引文献

相似文献