Comparative Dynamics of Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variants across and between California and Mexico.
Comparative Dynamics of Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variants across and between California and Mexico.
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DOI：
10.3390/v14071494
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发表时间：
2022-07-08
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使用病毒序列数据进行进化分析可以阐明传播的流行病学。利用公开的 SARS-CoV-2 序列和流行病学数据，我们开发了离散的系统发育地理学模型，以探究 2021 年 Delta 和 Omicron 变种在加利福尼亚州和墨西哥之间的出现和传播。该地区 Delta 和 Omicron 的外部引入在 7 月初（2021-07-10 [95% CI: 2021-04-20, 2021-11-01]）和 12 月中旬（2021-12-15 [95% CI: 2021-11-14, 2022-01-09]）达到峰值，分别为 3 个月和 2 个月。首次检测后几周。这些重复的引入与国内迁徙事件同时发生，没有证据表明存在独特的传播中心。 Omicron 的传播与墨西哥境内的重力中心模式最为一致。虽然跨境事件仅占所有 Delta 移民事件的 5.1% [95% CI: 4.3–6]，但占 Omicron 流动的 20.6% [95% CI: 12.4–29]，与 2021 年底观察到的国际旅行的增加相平行。我们对加利福尼亚/墨西哥地区的 Delta 和 Omicron 流行病的调查说明了复杂的相互作用以及病毒和结构因素的多样性，需要被认为是限制病毒传播，即使疫苗接种正在减轻疾病负担。了解病毒传播模式可能有助于政府内部应对病毒流行病。
Evolutionary analysis using viral sequence data can elucidate the epidemiology of transmission. Using publicly available SARS-CoV-2 sequence and epidemiological data, we developed discrete phylogeographic models to interrogate the emergence and dispersal of the Delta and Omicron variants in 2021 between and across California and Mexico. External introductions of Delta and Omicron in the region peaked in early July (2021-07-10 [95% CI: 2021-04-20, 2021-11-01]) and mid-December (2021-12-15 [95% CI: 2021-11-14, 2022-01-09]), respectively, 3 months and 2 weeks after first detection. These repeated introductions coincided with domestic migration events with no evidence of a unique transmission hub. The spread of Omicron was most consistent with gravity centric patterns within Mexico. While cross-border events accounted for only 5.1% [95% CI: 4.3–6] of all Delta migration events, they accounted for 20.6% [95% CI: 12.4–29] of Omicron movements, paralleling the increase in international travel observed in late 2021. Our investigations of the Delta and Omicron epidemics in the California/Mexico region illustrate the complex interplay and the multiplicity of viral and structural factors that need to be considered to limit viral spread, even as vaccination is reducing disease burden. Understanding viral transmission patterns may help intra-governmental responses to viral epidemics.