Multi-model climate projections of ocean surface variables under different climate scenarios, Future change of waves, sea level and wind
Multi-model climate projections of ocean surface variables under different climate scenarios, Future change of waves, sea level and wind
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不同气候情景下海洋表面变量的多模式气候预测、波浪、海平面和风的未来变化
DOI：
10.1016/j.oceaneng.2013.02.016
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
T. Yasuda and H. Mase
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mori;N.;T. Shimura;T. Yasuda and H. Mase
本研究利用结合IPCC（2007）结果和日本气象研究所最新高分辨率大气环流模式结果的气候数据集，分析了海平面上升、海面风和海浪高度等平均上层海洋物理的未来变化。采用基于经验公式的多模式集合方法，统计预报了海浪高H s作为海面风的函数。本文预估了2000 - 2100年期间可用于海岸和海洋工程的上层海洋物理的总体平均值和标准差。未来H s变化与当前气候值之比的幅度最多为±15%，超过了预估的海面气压和海面风速变化（U 10）。在赤道周围和南冰洋可以观测到预估的氢有很大的不确定性。大气压力分布的天气尺度对于估计和理解未来海平面上升、u10和H s的变化具有重要意义。
This study analyzes future changes in average upper ocean physics such as sea level rise, sea surface winds and ocean wave heights by using a climate data set combining IPCC (2007) results and the latest high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model results from the Meteorological Research Institute, Japan. Ocean wave height H s is statistically projected by using multi-model ensemble method based on an empirical formula as a function of sea surface winds. The ensemble means and the standard deviations of upper ocean physics, which can be used in coastal and ocean engineering, are projected for the period between 2000 and 2100. The magnitude of the ratio of future changes in H s to the value in the present climate is at most±15%, which exceeds the projected changes in sea surface pressure and surface wind speed, U 10. A large uncertainty in the projected H s can be observed around the Equator and in the Antarctic Ocean. The synoptic scale of atmospheric pressure distribution is found to be important for estimating and understanding the future changes in sea level rise, U 10 and H s.