Making the Macroeconomic Case for Near Term Action on CCS in the UK? The Current State of Economy-wide Modelling Evidence
Making the Macroeconomic Case for Near Term Action on CCS in the UK? The Current State of Economy-wide Modelling Evidence
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为英国 CCS 近期行动提供宏观经济理由？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Ragne Low
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Turner;J. Race;O. Alabi;Ragne Low
关键信息：* 就CCS（碳捕集与封存）在更广泛的经济中的作用制定一个经济叙述，将有助于扩大目前的政策辩论，使更广泛的利益相关者参与其中-如果我们要推进讨论，这是至关重要的。* 在英国政策背景下，现阶段最引人注目的叙述可能是“持续贡献”叙述，其重点是CCS在实现我们已经投资的行业的持续贡献方面的潜在作用，我们目前正在实现价值，并且我们需要实现不断增长的价值。这与英国工业战略的主题直接相关。* 有两类行业与这一叙述特别相关：可能从事CO2捕获的能源使用/排放行业，以及提供化石燃料的石油和天然气行业，这些行业已经具备建立CO2运输和储存网络所需的许多技能、专门知识和有形基础设施。* 从我们对证据的初步探索中，我们认为，由于资本密集度，CCS相关行业很难创造就业机会，而由于国内上游供应联系的强度，任何一个工作岗位的流失都可能对其他工作岗位产生相对较大的连锁负面影响。* 关于价格压力的实验性工作表明，CCS最终可能以何种方式和由谁“支付”的模式很重要，但可能非常不同。在某些情况下，高价值产业的竞争力可能受到影响，而在另一些情况下，消费者的能源账单可能受到影响，这将产生非常不同的经济和政治影响。
Key messages: * Developing an economic narrative on the role of CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) in the wider economy will help extend the current policy debate to involve a wider stakeholder audience – this is critical if we are to move the discussion forward. * The most compelling narrative at this stage in the UK policy context may be the ‘sustained contribution’ narrative, which focusses on the potential role of CCS in enabling the sustained contribution of sectors where we have already invested, from which we currently realise value, and from which we need to realise growing value. This relates directly to themes in the UK Industrial Strategy. * Two types of industries are particularly relevant to this narrative: the energy-using/emitting industries that may engage in CO2 capture, and the fossil fuel supplying oil and gas industry, where much of the skills, expertise and physical infrastructure that would be required to set up a CO2 transport and storage network already exist. * From our initial exploration of the evidence, we suggest that due to their capital intensity, jobs are difficult to create in CCS-relevant industries, while, due to the strength of their domestic upstream supply linkages, the loss of any one job is likely to have relatively large knock-on negative effects on other jobs. * Experimental work on price pressures suggests important but potentially very different patterns of how and by whom CCS may ultimately be ‘paid for’. Where there may be impacts on the competitiveness of high value industries in some contexts and on consumer energy bills in others, these would have very different economic and political implications.