Low-Concentration PM2.5 and Mortality: Estimating Acute and Chronic Effects in a Population-Based Study.
Low-Concentration PM2.5 and Mortality: Estimating Acute and Chronic Effects in a Population-Based Study.
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DOI：
10.1289/ehp.1409111
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发表时间：
2016-01
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Schwartz JD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shi L;Zanobetti A;Kloog I;Coull BA;Koutrakis P;Melly SJ;Schwartz JD
短期和长期接触细颗粒物（≤ 2.5 μm；PM2.5）均与死亡率相关。然而，这些关联的存在水平是否低于美国环境保护署 (EPA) 新标准（PM2.5 年均 12 微克/立方米，每日 35 微克/立方米）尚不清楚。此外，尚不清楚之前的时间序列研究（适用于大城市）和队列研究（适用于便利样本）的结果是否具有普适性。我们估计了低浓度 PM2.5 对死亡率的影响。使用来自卫星气溶胶光学深度反演的高分辨率（1 公里 × 1 公里）每日 PM2.5 预测。将泊松回归应用于新英格兰的医疗保险人群（≥ 65 岁），以同时估计暴露于 PM2.5 的急性和慢性影响，并针对短期和长期暴露以及基于区域的混杂因素进行相互调整。模型还限于年浓度 < 10 μg/m3 或日浓度 < 30 μg/m3。 PM2.5 与死亡率增加相关。在研究队列中，短期（2 天）和长期（1 年）暴露量每增加 10 μg/m3，估计分别增加 2.14%（95% CI：1.38、2.89%）和 7.52%（95% CI：1.95、13.40%）。这些关联仅限于低浓度 PM2.5 暴露的分析，相应的估计值为 2.14%（95% CI：1.34，2.95%）和 9.28%（95% CI：0.76，18.52%）。长期暴露的惩罚样条模型表明，与暴露< 6 μg/m3 相比，≥ 6 μg/m3 的暴露对死亡率的影响更大。相比之下，短期暴露与死亡率之间的关联在整个暴露分布中似乎呈线性关系。使用相互调整的模型，我们估计了低于当前美国 EPA 标准的 PM2.5 暴露的显着急性和慢性影响。这些研究结果表明，以比目前美国 EPA 标准允许的更低的 PM2.5 改善空气质量可能有益于公众健康。施 L、扎诺贝蒂 A、克卢格 I、库尔 BA、Koutrakis P、梅利 SJ、施瓦茨 JD。 2016。低浓度 PM2.5 和死亡率：在基于人群的研究中估计急性和慢性影响。环境健康视角 124：46-52； http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409111
Both short- and long-term exposures to fine particulate matter (≤ 2.5 μm; PM2.5) are associated with mortality. However, whether the associations exist at levels below the new U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards (12 μg/m3 of annual average PM2.5, 35 μg/m3 daily) is unclear. In addition, it is not clear whether results from previous time series studies (fit in larger cities) and cohort studies (fit in convenience samples) are generalizable. We estimated the effects of low-concentration PM2.5 on mortality. High resolution (1 km × 1 km) daily PM2.5 predictions, derived from satellite aerosol optical depth retrievals, were used. Poisson regressions were applied to a Medicare population (≥ 65 years of age) in New England to simultaneously estimate the acute and chronic effects of exposure to PM2.5, with mutual adjustment for short- and long-term exposure, as well as for area-based confounders. Models were also restricted to annual concentrations < 10 μg/m3 or daily concentrations < 30 μg/m3. PM2.5 was associated with increased mortality. In the study cohort, 2.14% (95% CI: 1.38, 2.89%) and 7.52% (95% CI: 1.95, 13.40%) increases were estimated for each 10-μg/m3 increase in short- (2 day) and long-term (1 year) exposure, respectively. The associations held for analyses restricted to low-concentration PM2.5 exposure, and the corresponding estimates were 2.14% (95% CI: 1.34, 2.95%) and 9.28% (95% CI: 0.76, 18.52%). Penalized spline models of long-term exposure indicated a larger effect for mortality in association with exposures ≥ 6 μg/m3 versus those < 6 μg/m3. In contrast, the association between short-term exposure and mortality appeared to be linear across the entire exposure distribution. Using a mutually adjusted model, we estimated significant acute and chronic effects of PM2.5 exposure below the current U.S. EPA standards. These findings suggest that improving air quality with even lower PM2.5 than currently allowed by U.S. EPA standards may benefit public health. Shi L, Zanobetti A, Kloog I, Coull BA, Koutrakis P, Melly SJ, Schwartz JD. 2016. Low-concentration PM2.5 and mortality: estimating acute and chronic effects in a population-based study. Environ Health Perspect 124:46–52; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409111