The End of a Romance? A Note on the Quantitative Impacts of a "Brexit' from the EU
The End of a Romance? A Note on the Quantitative Impacts of a "Brexit' from the EU
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DOI：
10.1111/1477-9552.12120
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发表时间：
2015-09-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Philippidis, George
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boulanger, Pierre;Philippidis, George
这项研究表明，英国退出欧盟预算的等值变动（EV）收益为89亿欧元。考虑到英国失去进入单一市场的相关贸易便利化成本，英国电动汽车每年的损失可能高达140亿欧元，欧盟28国面临的相应损失为404亿欧元。有趣的是，英国从欧盟预算的共同农业政策部分退出所产生的外推收益超过了欧盟农产品贸易的估计贸易便利化成本下限和上限。因此，英国应该现实地继续作为欧盟成员国，尽管继续游说削减CAP预算。
This study suggests UK equivalent variation (EV) gains of Euro8.9billion on withdrawal from the EU budget. Factoring in associated trade facilitation costs from the loss of UK access to the single market, annual UK EV losses could be as high as Euro14.0billion, with the EU-28 facing a corresponding loss of Euro40.4billion. Interestingly, the extrapolated UK gain arising from withdrawal from the CAP' component of the EU budget exceeds estimated lower and upper bound trade facilitation costs exclusively on EU agrofood trade. Accordingly, the UK should realistically remain as an EU member, although continue to lobby for reductions in the CAP budget.