Factors driving the circulation and possible expansion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in the western Palearctic
Factors driving the circulation and possible expansion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in the western Palearctic
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DOI：
10.1111/jam.12039
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
de la Fuente, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Estrada-Pena, A.;Ruiz-Fons, F.;de la Fuente, J.
目的通过将主要蜱虫媒介Hyalomma marginatum的过程驱动模型与下一代矩阵相联系，生成关于克里米亚-刚果出血热病毒（CCHFV）在古北界西部传播的空间风险图。方法和结果过程驱动模型由确定性方程组成，利用温度和大气水汽数据模拟不同蜱虫阶段的发育率和死亡率。该模型使用的气候数据，在10天的时间间隔，在10分钟的空间分辨率在西部古北。该模型估计了CCHFV通过H. marginatum蜱，并评估了温度和生物学参数的变化如何改变CCHFV的地理范围。特别是，在蜱中CCHFV的跨卵传播率的变化产生了最大的变化，在蜱种群中CCHFV循环。影响蜱叮咬率、非系统传播率和蜱间传播效率的参数对R 0影响不大。影响蜱发育，存活率和活动率的温度变化增加了CCHFV传播的适宜区域在较高纬度的西部古北。结论非系统性传播对病毒传播影响不大。在研究地区，温度升高对CCHFV的传播途径没有影响。然而，气候条件有利于蜱虫生存，增加了受感染的成年蜱虫种群，以及大量的成年宿主被预测为研究地区病毒传播的最可能情况。该研究的意义和影响-拟议的框架是能够捕获的动态和不同的路线（主机，蜱）在传播和传播的一个重要的病原体影响人类健康的相对贡献。跨卵传播途径的高度贡献使得该过程高度依赖于成年蜱的合适宿主，如大型家养和野生有蹄类动物。气候似乎对这种传播的影响非常小。
Aims To produce a spatial risk map regarding spread of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) in the western Palearctic by linking a process-driven model of the main tick vector, Hyalomma marginatum, to a Next Generation Matrix. Methods and Results Process-driven model was composed of deterministic equations that simulate developmental and mortality rates of different tick stages by using temperature and atmospheric water vapour data. The model used climate data at 10-day intervals at a spatial resolution of 10 min over western Palearctic. The model estimated the basic reproduction number, R0, for CCHFV transmission by H. marginatum ticks and evaluated how changes in temperature and biological parameters may alter the geographical range of CCHFV. In particular, variation in the rate of transovarial transmission of CCHFV in the tick produced the greatest change in CCHFV circulation in the tick population. Parameters affecting the rates of tick bite, non-systemic transmission and efficiency of tick-to-tick transmission had little effect on R0. Temperature changes that affect tick development, survival and activity rates increased the suitable area for CCHFV transmission at higher latitudes in the western Palearctic. Conclusions Non-systemic transmission had little impact on virus transmission under all scenarios. In the area studied, increase of temperature has no impact on the routes of transmission of CCHFV. However, climate conditions favouring tick survival, which increase infected adult tick populations, together with large numbers of hosts for adults were predicted as the most likely scenario for the spread of the virus in the studied area. Significance and Impact of the Study The proposed framework is able to capture the dynamics and the relative contribution of the different routes (hosts, ticks) in the transmission and spread of an important pathogen affecting human health. The high contribution of the transovarial transmission route makes the process highly dependent upon suitable hosts for adult ticks, like large domestic and wild ungulates. Climate seems to have a very reduced effect on such spread.