Future coral reef habitat marginality: temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin
Future coral reef habitat marginality: temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s00338-003-0331-4
复制
发表时间：
2003-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Kleypas, JA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guinotte, JM;Buddemeier, RW;Kleypas, JA
边缘珊瑚礁栖息地被认为是珊瑚礁和珊瑚群落反映稳态或长期平均环境限制影响的区域。我们使用基于这一概念的分类以及预测的未来气候随时间变化的条件来开发未来边缘性演变的情景。基于大气二氧化碳增加的保守情景的模型结果用于检查 2069 年之前太平洋盆地海面温度和文石饱和状态的变化。预测结果表明，基本上所有珊瑚礁位置都可能在文石饱和状态方面变得边缘化。重要地区，包括一些生物多样性最高的地区，预计将经历边缘高温状态，而其他地区将进入近期经历过与 ENSO 相关的严重白化的边缘高温范围。 The positive effects of warming in areas that are presently marginal in terms of low temperature were limited. Conditions of the late 21st century do not lie outside the ranges in which present-day marginal reef systems occur. Adaptive and acclimative capabilities of organisms and communities will be critical in determining the future of coral reef ecosystems.
Marginal reef habitats are regarded as regions where coral reefs and coral communities reflect the effects of steady-state or long-term average environmental limitations. We used classifications based on this concept with predicted time-variant conditions of future climate to develop a scenario for the evolution of future marginality. Model results based on a conservative scenario of atmospheric CO2 increase were used to examine changes in sea surface temperature and aragonite saturation state over the Pacific Ocean basin until 2069. Results of the projections indicated that essentially all reef locations are likely to become marginal with respect to aragonite saturation state. Significant areas, including some with the highest biodiversity, are expected to experience high-temperature regimes that may be marginal, and additional areas will enter the borderline high temperature range that have experienced significant ENSO-related bleaching in the recent past. The positive effects of warming in areas that are presently marginal in terms of low temperature were limited. Conditions of the late 21st century do not lie outside the ranges in which present-day marginal reef systems occur. Adaptive and acclimative capabilities of organisms and communities will be critical in determining the future of coral reef ecosystems.