An "epidemic" model of sexual intercourse prevalences for black and white adolescents.
An "epidemic" model of sexual intercourse prevalences for black and white adolescents.
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黑人和白人青少年性交流行的“流行病”模型。
DOI：
10.1080/19485565.1989.9988728
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发表时间：
1989
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Meseck-Bushey,S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Rowe,DC;Rodgers,JL;Meseck-Bushey,S
在青春期（12-16岁），性交的流行率每年都在增加。为了解释逐年增加的患病率，我们提出了一个递归方程模型的青少年性交的发病。该模型考虑了一个“流行病”过程（性从非处女到处女的传播）和一个非流行病过程（两个处女进行性交）。该模型还要求处女女性在进行性交之前必须达到青春期成熟。对黑人和白色受访者的性交流行率进行了适当的拟合。替代模型的比较建立了完整的模型是上级模型，忽略了非流行的过程或女性的青春期成熟的要求。该模型能够同时拟合白色和黑人，假设两个种族的转移概率相等。因此，我们提出的假设，性交患病率的种族差异可能会受到强烈影响的年龄开始的“流行病”的过程和种族差异的女性的青春期成熟率。结果表明，大多数新的性交病例是由流行过程引起的，如果有机会，男性更容易发生性交。
In adolescence (12–16 years), the prevalence of sexual intercourse increases each year. To explain the increasing yearly prevalences, we propose a recursive equation model of onset of adolescent sexual intercourse. The model allows for an “epidemic” process (the transmission of sexuality from a nonvirgin to a virgin) and a nonepidemic process (two virgins progressing to sexual intercourse). The model also requires that virgin females be pubertally mature before they will progress to sexual intercourse. Adequate fits were obtained to the intercourse prevalences for both black and white respondents. Comparisons of alternative models established that the full model was superior to models that omitted either the nonepidemic process or the requirement of females’ pubertal maturation. The model was able to fit both white and blacks simultaneously, assuming equal transition probabilities in both races. Hence, we propose the hypothesis that race differences in sexual intercourse prevalences may be strongly influenced by the age of initiation of the “epidemic” process and by race difference in females’ rates of pubertal maturation. The results suggested that most new cases of sexual intercourse arose from the epidemic process and that males were more prone to progress to intercourse, given an opportunity.