How Do Government Transfer Payments Affect Retail Prices and Welfare? Evidence from SNAP
How Do Government Transfer Payments Affect Retail Prices and Welfare? Evidence from SNAP
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政府转移支付如何影响零售价格和福利？
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发表时间：
2019
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Hee Kwon Seo
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作者：
Justin Leung;Hee Kwon Seo
补充营养援助计划（SNAP）每年支付美国食品商店消费的15%（700亿美元）。我们评估了SNAP支出对大衰退和随后十年真实的消费的影响。我们记录的支付公式指定的政府计算机代码用于审计SNAP，并使用代码来模拟如何付款将演变的收件人的特征保持固定在预先指定的水平。使用自2006年以来可用的国家扫描仪数据和模拟仪器，我们估计每个人口的SNAP收益增加1%会导致食品价格持续上涨0.08%。我们验证了长期和平坦的前趋势，尖锐的时机，以及更强的影响，在县的受援国人口的份额是较大的。边际消费倾向（MPCF）的估计支持过去的研究结果。我们开发和校准的部分均衡模型，既测试的一致性的研究结果与理论和解释的结果。一美元的边际收益使接受者的食品消费者剩余增加0.7美元，生产者剩余增加0.5美元，并使每个非SNAP消费者的剩余减少0.06美元，因为SNAP的MPCF很大，需求弹性低，市场力量。如果SNAP的目标是保证食品真实的消费能力的预期底线，那么联邦最大福利应该增加10%，以应对价格反应。
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) pays for around 15% ($70 billion) of US food-store consumption each year. We assess the impact of SNAP disbursements on real consumption over the Great Recession and the ensuing decade. We document the payment formula as specified in government computer codes used to audit SNAP, and use the codes to simulate how the payments would have evolved had recipient characteristics remained fixed at pre-specified levels. Using national scanner data available since 2006 and the simulated instrument, we estimate that a 1% increase in SNAP benefits per population led to a persistent 0.08% increase in grocery prices. We verify long and flat pre-trends, sharp timing, and stronger effects in counties where the recipient share of the population is larger. Estimates of marginal propensities to consume food (MPCF) support past findings. We develop and calibrate a partial equilibrium model, both to test the consistency of the findings with theory and to interpret the results. A marginal dollar of benefits raises the recipient’s consumer surplus from groceries by $0.7, producer surplus by $0.5, and lowers each non-SNAP consumer’s surplus by $0.06, because of the large MPCF out of SNAP, low elasticities of demand, and market power. If the objective of SNAP is to guarantee the intended floor of real spending power on food, federal maximum benefits should be increased by 10% to account for the price response.