Rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice in recent years hints at future change
Rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice in recent years hints at future change
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DOI：
10.1038/s41561-021-00768-3
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发表时间：
2021-06-28
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Holland, David M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eayrs, Clare;Li, Xichen;Holland, David M.
在经历了多年的创纪录高点之后，南极海冰范围在2016年开始出现意想不到的急剧减少。这种持续三年的下降是卫星时代最明显的，相当于北极30年的海冰损失。在这里，我们综合最近的工作表明，这种海冰减少可能是由于几十年的海洋变暖趋势和早春向南平流的大气热量的相互作用，在晚春南半球中纬度西风异常减弱。我们讨论了这一事件揭示了控制该地区海冰的基本大气和海洋动力学过程，以及气候变率和远程强迫（特别是来自热带地区）影响这些过程的方式。知识空白表明，需要进一步开展工作，以改善对地球上最大的季节性现象之一的未来变化的预测。数十年的变暖和低纬度地区大气热量的强烈注入的综合影响可能是2016年开始南极洲周围海冰范围急剧减少的罪魁祸首。
Following years of record highs, an unexpected and precipitous reduction in Antarctic sea-ice extent started in 2016. This decline, lasting three years, was the most pronounced of the satellite era, equivalent to 30 years of sea-ice loss in the Arctic. Here, we synthesize recent work showing this sea-ice reduction probably resulted from the interaction of a decades-long ocean warming trend and an early spring southward advection of atmospheric heat, with an exceptional weakening of the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude westerlies in late spring. We discuss what this event reveals about the underlying atmospheric and oceanic dynamical processes that control sea ice in the region and the ways in which shifting climate variability and remote forcings, especially from the tropics, influence these processes. Knowledge gaps show that further work is needed to improve future projections of changes in one of the largest seasonal phenomena on the planet.The combined effects of decades-long warming and particularly vigorous injections of atmospheric heat from lower latitudes were the likely culprits for sharp declines in sea-ice extent around Antarctica starting in 2016.