An evaluation of graduated driver licensing programs in North America using a meta-analytic approach
An evaluation of graduated driver licensing programs in North America using a meta-analytic approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.aap.2009.06.024
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发表时间：
2009-09-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Shope, Jean
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vanlaar, Ward;Mayhew, Dan;Shope, Jean
北美的大多数司法管辖区都有某种版本的分级驾驶执照(GDL)。有可靠的证据证明GDL计划在减少新手司机之间的碰撞、死亡和伤害方面的有效性。然而，缺乏关于GDL各个组成部分的相对重要性的信息。这项研究的目的是计算GDL有效性的汇总统计数据，并使用元分析方法确定GDL计划中最有效的组成部分。使用了来自美国46个州、哥伦比亚特区和加拿大11个司法管辖区的数据，这些数据来自美国的死亡分析报告系统(FARS)和加拿大交通部的交通事故信息数据库(TRAID)。本次评价的时间范围为1992至2006年，包括1992年和2006年。在每个司法管辖区的实施前和实施后期间，使用目标组和对照组的死亡计数和人口数据计算了相对死亡风险及其95%的可信区间。目标群体是16、17、18和19岁的司机。对照组为25-54岁的司机。利用随机效应、德西蒙尼和莱尔德模型总结了所有司法管辖区的相对死亡风险。采用限制最大似然(REML)和马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)Gibbs抽样进行Meta回归。发现了支持GDL的强有力的证据。GDL对16岁司机的相对死亡风险有积极而显著的影响(降低了19.1%)。对于16岁、18岁和19岁司机的Meta回归模型，发现了显著的影响。这些影响包括学习阶段的夜间限制、国家、学习阶段和中间阶段的司机教育、中间阶段的夜间限制是否因工作目的而取消、中间阶段的乘客限制、如果乘客是家庭成员是否取消中间阶段的乘客限制，以及中间阶段是否有出境考试。总而言之，几个GDL程序组件对新手司机的相对死亡风险有重要影响。这些结果有助于理解这些效果是如何实现的。(C)2009爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
Most jurisdictions in North America have some version of graduated driver licensing (GDL). A sound body of evidence documenting the effectiveness of GDL programs in reducing collisions, fatalities and injuries among novice drivers is available. However, information about the relative importance of individual components of GDL is lacking. The objectives of this study are to calculate a summary statistic of GDL effectiveness and to identify the most effective components of GDL programs using a meta-analytic approach. Data from 46 American States, the District of Columbia and 11 Canadian jurisdictions are used and were obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) for the U.S. and from Transport Canada's Traffic Accident Information Database (TRAID) for Canada. The timeframe of this evaluation is 1992 through 2006, inclusive. Relative fatality risks and their 95% confidence intervals were calculated using fatality counts and population data for target and comparison groups, both in a pre-implementation and post-implementation period in each jurisdiction. The target groups were 16,17,18- and 19-year-old drivers. The comparison group was 25-54-year-old drivers. The relative fatality risks of all jurisdictions were summarized using the random effects DerSimonian and Laird model. Meta-regression using Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling was also conducted. Strong evidence in support of GDL was found. GDL had a positive and significant impact on the relative fatality risk of 16-year-old drivers (reduction of 19.1%). Significant effects were found for meta-regression models with 16-, 18- and 19-year-old drivers. These effects include length of night restriction in the learner stage, country, driver education in the learner stage and in the intermediate stage, whether night restrictions are lifted in the intermediate stage for work purposes, passenger restriction in the intermediate stage, whether passenger restrictions in the intermediate stage are lifted if passengers are family members, and whether there is an exit test in the intermediate stage. in conclusion, several GDL program components have an important effect on the relative fatality risk of novice drivers. These results help understand how such effects are achieved. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.