Analysis and valuation of the health and climate change cobenefits of dietary change
Analysis and valuation of the health and climate change cobenefits of dietary change
复制标题
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1523119113
复制
发表时间：
2016-04-12
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Scarborough, Peter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Springmann, Marco;Godfray, H. Charles J.;Scarborough, Peter
我们吃的东西极大地影响了我们的个人健康和我们共同分享的环境。最近的分析强调了减少我们饮食中动物源性食物的比例可能带来的双重健康和环境效益。在这里，我们夫妇的第一次，我们的知识，一个区域特定的全球健康模型的基础上饮食和体重相关的风险因素与排放核算和经济估值模块量化饮食变化的健康和环境后果。我们发现，饮食变化对减少肉类和更多植物性饮食的影响在不同地区之间差异很大。最大的绝对环境和健康效益来自发展中国家的饮食变化，而西方高收入和中等收入国家的人均收益最大。与2050年的参考情景相比，向符合标准膳食指南的更多植物性饮食过渡可以将全球死亡率降低6-10%，并将与食物相关的温室气体排放量降低29-70%。我们发现，健康改善的货币化价值将与环境效益的价值相当或超过环境效益的价值，尽管所使用的确切估值方法极大地影响了估计金额。总体而言，我们估计改善饮食的经济效益为1-31万亿美元，相当于2050年全球国内生产总值（GDP）的0.4-13%。然而，全球粮食系统的重大变化将是必要的区域饮食，以配合这里研究的饮食模式。
What we eat greatly influences our personal health and the environment we all share. Recent analyses have highlighted the likely dual health and environmental benefits of reducing the fraction of animal-sourced foods in our diets. Here, we couple for the first time, to our knowledge, a region-specific global health model based on dietary and weight-related risk factors with emissions accounting and economic valuation modules to quantify the linked health and environmental consequences of dietary changes. We find that the impacts of dietary changes toward less meat and more plant-based diets vary greatly among regions. The largest absolute environmental and health benefits result from diet shifts in developing countries whereas Western high-income and middle-income countries gain most in per capita terms. Transitioning toward more plant-based diets that are in line with standard dietary guidelines could reduce global mortality by 6-10% and food-related greenhouse gas emissions by 29-70% compared with a reference scenario in 2050. We find that the monetized value of the improvements in health would be comparable with, or exceed, the value of the environmental benefits although the exact valuation method used considerably affects the estimated amounts. Overall, we estimate the economic benefits of improving diets to be 1-31 trillion US dollars, which is equivalent to 0.4-13% of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2050. However, significant changes in the global food system would be necessary for regional diets to match the dietary patterns studied here.