The contradiction of the sustainable development goals: Growth versus ecology on a finite planet
The contradiction of the sustainable development goals: Growth versus ecology on a finite planet
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DOI：
10.1002/sd.1947
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发表时间：
2019-09-01
影响因子：
12.5
通讯作者：
Hickel, Jason
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hickel, Jason
可持续发展目标(SDGs)有两面性，似乎存在矛盾的风险。其中一个呼吁人类实现“与自然的和谐”，并保护地球免受退化，具体目标在目标6、12、13、14和15中列出。另一个呼吁将目标8中概述的每年相当于3%的全球经济持续增长作为实现人类发展目标的一种方法。可持续发展目标假定，提高效率将足以调和增长和生态可持续性之间的紧张关系。本文利用实证数据来检验这一假设是否成立，特别关注两个关键的生态指标：资源利用和二氧化碳排放。结果表明，全球每年3%的增长率使得实现(A)全球资源使用总量的任何减少和(B)二氧化碳排放的减少足够快地保持在2摄氏度的碳预算内的目标在经验上是不可行的。换句话说，目标8违反了可持续发展目标的可持续发展目标。该文件建议对可持续发展目标进行具体修改，以解决这一问题，例如取消全球总增长的要求，并引入人均资源使用的量化目标，同时大幅减少高收入国家的资源使用。减少资源使用也是实现气候目标最可行的方式，因为它减少了能源需求。该文件提出了实现人类发展目标的替代路径，这些路径依赖于减少国家内部和国家之间的不平等，而不是总体增长。
There are two sides to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which appear at risk of contradiction. One calls for humanity to achieve "harmony with nature" and to protect the planet from degradation, with specific targets laid out in Goals 6, 12, 13, 14, and 15. The other calls for continued global economic growth equivalent to 3% per year, as outlined in Goal 8, as a method for achieving human development objectives. The SDGs assume that efficiency improvements will suffice to reconcile the tension between growth and ecological sustainability. This paper draws on empirical data to test whether this assumption is valid, paying particular attention to two key ecological indicators: resource use and CO2 emissions. The results show that global growth of 3% per year renders it empirically infeasible to achieve (a) any reductions in aggregate global resource use and (b) reductions in CO2 emissions rapid enough to stay within the carbon budget for 2 degrees C. In other words, Goal 8 violates the sustainability objectives of the SDGs. The paper proposes specific changes to SDG targets in order to resolve this issue, such as removing the requirement of aggregate global growth and introducing quantified objectives for resource use per capita with substantial reductions in high-income nations. Scaling down resource use is also the most feasible way to achieve the climate target, as it reduces energy demand. The paper presents alternative pathways for realizing human development objectives that rely on reducing inequality-both within nations and between them-rather than aggregate growth.