Stochastic modelling of African swine fever in wild boar and domestic pigs: Epidemic forecasting and comparison of disease management strategies
Stochastic modelling of African swine fever in wild boar and domestic pigs: Epidemic forecasting and comparison of disease management strategies
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DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100622
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发表时间：
2022-08-27
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Donnelly, Christl A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dankwa, Emmanuelle A.;Lambert, Sebastien;Donnelly, Christl A.
由非洲猪瘟病毒(ASFV)引起的非洲猪瘟(ASF)在家猪和野猪(Sus Scrofa)中具有高度致病性，可导致高达100%的死亡。最近ASF在欧洲的流行对经济造成了严重影响，并对全球粮食安全构成威胁。不幸的是，目前还没有针对ASFV的有效治疗或疫苗，这限制了可用的疾病管理策略。数学模型使我们能够加深对传染病动态的理解，并评估疾病管理策略的有效性。ASF挑战赛由法国国家农业、食品和环境研究所组织，旨在扩大ASF传播模型的开发，以便及时向政策制定者提供信息。在这里，我们介绍了我们的团队在挑战期间产生的模型和相关预测。我们建立了一个结合野猪和家猪之间传播的随机模型，并将其校准为描述疫情发展的不同阶段的合成数据。然后，该模型被用来产生前瞻性预测，描述在各种疾病管理情景下疫情可能的时间演变。尽管采取了干预措施，但长期预测预测ASFV在野猪中持续存在，因此在家猪中反复爆发。一个重要的发现是，重要的是要考虑评估不同措施的时间尺度：短期内效果有限的干预措施可能会产生巨大的长期效益。我们的模型有几个局限性，部分原因是它是实时开发的。尽管如此，如果病毒继续在欧洲传播，它可以帮助理解ASF流行病的可能发展和疾病管理策略的有效性。
African swine fever (ASF), caused by the African swine fever virus (ASFV), is highly virulent in domestic pigs and wild boar (Sus scrofa), causing up to 100% mortality. The recent epidemic of ASF in Europe has had a serious economic impact and poses a threat to global food security. Unfortunately, there is no effective treatment or vaccine against ASFV, limiting the available disease management strategies. Mathematical models allow us to further our understanding of infectious disease dynamics and evaluate the efficacy of disease management strategies. The ASF Challenge, organised by the French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food, and the Environment, aimed to expand the development of ASF transmission models to inform policy makers in a timely manner. Here, we present the model and associated projections produced by our team during the challenge. We developed a stochastic model combining transmission between wild boar and domestic pigs, which was calibrated to synthetic data corresponding to different phases describing the epidemic progression. The model was then used to produce forward projections describing the likely temporal evolution of the epidemic under various disease management scenarios. Despite the interventions implemented, long-term projections forecasted persistence of ASFV in wild boar, and hence repeated outbreaks in domestic pigs. A key finding was that it is important to consider the timescale over which different measures are evaluated: interventions that have only limited effectiveness in the short term may yield substantial long-term benefits. Our model has several limitations, partly because it was developed in real-time. Nonetheless, it can inform understanding of the likely development of ASF epidemics and the efficacy of disease management strategies, should the virus continue its spread in Europe.