Modelling and forecasting stock-recruitment: current and future perspectives
Modelling and forecasting stock-recruitment: current and future perspectives
复制标题
DOI：
10.1093/icesjms/fsu148
复制
发表时间：
2014-10-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Nash, Richard D. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Subbey, Sam;Devine, Jennifer A.;Nash, Richard D. M.
本文简要回顾了库存招聘预测的知识现状，包括库存招聘预测的过程和当前的方法学挑战。讨论涉及模型显然无法准确预测招聘，即使将环境协变量作为解释变量包括在内。审查表明，尽管在过去一百年里逐步取得了成功，但如果要在未来一百年内使种群招募的建模和预测过程与渔业科学和管理相关，仍然存在重大挑战。
This paper presents a brief review of the present state of knowledge in stock-recruitment forecasting, including process and current methodological challenges to predicting stock-recruitment. The discussion covers the apparent inability of models to accurately forecast recruitment even when environmental covariates are included as explanatory variables. The review shows that despite the incremental success in the past hundred years, substantial challenges remain if the process of modelling and forecasting stock-recruitment is to become relevant to fisheries science and management in the next 100 years.