The Future of Reef Ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico: Insights From Coupled Climate Model Simulations and Ancient Hot-House Reefs
The Future of Reef Ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico: Insights From Coupled Climate Model Simulations and Ancient Hot-House Reefs
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DOI：
10.3389/fmars.2019.00691
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发表时间：
2019-11
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
S. Dee;M. Torres;R. Martindale;A. Weiss;K. Delong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Dee;M. Torres;R. Martindale;A. Weiss;K. Delong
浅水珊瑚礁和深海珊瑚群落对当前和未来的环境压力很敏感，例如海洋表面温度(SST)、盐度、碳酸盐化学和酸度的变化。在过去的半个世纪里，一些珊瑚礁群落正在以惊人的速度消失。这项研究的重点是墨西哥湾，据报道，那里的大多数浅珊瑚礁状况不佳或尚可。我们分析了共同体地球系统模式V1.2的RCP8.5集合，以确定墨西哥湾平均SST的月到年代变化趋势。其次，在相同的耦合模式模拟中，我们检查了海洋pH、碳酸盐饱和状态和盐度的预测变化。我们发现，预测的高温和海洋酸化变化的共同影响将在21世纪末严重退化墨西哥湾珊瑚礁系统。SST可能会变暖2.5到3摄氏度；虽然珊瑚确实显示出向更高温度进化的迹象，但当前的珊瑚物种和珊瑚礁系统可能在未来几年遭受重大白化事件。我们将未来的变化与古气候相似的古代珊瑚礁联系起来，古气候相似时期也是地球过去的异常温暖的时期，特别是快速的超热事件。古代类似事件通常与灭绝、珊瑚礁崩溃和重大生态变化有关，但珊瑚礁群落设法在进化的时间尺度上生存了下来。最后，我们回顾了讨论墨西哥湾珊瑚礁、生物多样性和海洋健康的适应潜力的研究。我们断言，长期保护和恢复的唯一有保证的解决方案是大幅、快速地减少人为温室气体排放。
Shallow water coral reefs and deep sea coral communities are sensitive to current and future environmental stresses, such as changes in sea surface temperatures (SST), salinity, carbonate chemistry, and acidity. Over the last half-century, some reef communities have been disappearing at an alarming pace. This study focuses on the Gulf of Mexico, where the majority of shallow coral reefs are reported to be in poor or fair condition. We analyze the RCP8.5 ensemble of the Community Earth System Model v1.2 to identify monthly-to-decadal trends in mean Gulf of Mexico SST. Secondly, we examine projected changes in ocean pH, carbonate saturation state, and salinity in the same coupled model simulations. We find that the joint impacts of predicted higher temperatures and changes in ocean acidification will severely degrade Gulf of Mexico reef systems by the end of the 21st century. SSTs are likely to warm by 2.5 to 3C; while corals do show signs of an ability to evolve toward higher temperatures, current coral species and reef systems are likely to suffer major bleaching events in coming years. We contextualize future changes with ancient reefs from paleoclimate analogues, periods of Earth's past that were also exceptionally warm, specifically rapid ``hyperthermal" events. Ancient analogue events are often associated with extinctions, reef collapse, and significant ecological changes, yet reef communities managed to survive these events on evolutionary timescales. Finally, we review research which discusses the adaptive potential of the Gulf of Mexico's coral reefs, meccas of biodiversity and oceanic health. We assert that the only guaranteed solution for long-term conservation and recovery is substantial, rapid reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.