Propagation Mechanisms for Government Spending Shocks: A Bayesian Comparison
Propagation Mechanisms for Government Spending Shocks: A Bayesian Comparison
复制标题
政府支出冲击的传播机制：贝叶斯比较
DOI：
10.1111/jmcb.12555
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Sarah Zubairy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Kormilitsina;Sarah Zubairy
在许多实证研究中观察到，简单的实际商业周期模型无法预测政府支出增加带来的消费增长，这刺激了对政府支出冲击的替代理论的发展。我们使用贝叶斯方法对现有的五个模型的量化性能进行了评估，发现所考虑的政府支出的传导机制都无助于提高基线模型的拟合程度。此外，我们发现，在所有估计模型中，随着政府支出的增加，消费都会下降。
The inability of a simple real business cycle model to predict a rise in consumption in response to increased government expenditures, observed in many empirical studies, has stimulated the development of alternative theories of government spending shocks. Using the Bayesian approach, we evaluate the quantitative performance of five extant models, and find that neither of the considered transmission mechanisms for government spending helps improve the fit of the baseline model. Moreover, we find that consumption decreases in all estimated models in response to a rise in government spending.