Probabilistic modeling of wave climate and predicting dune erosion
Probabilistic modeling of wave climate and predicting dune erosion
复制标题
波浪气候的概率建模和预测沙丘侵蚀
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Ranasinghe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Li;P. V. Gelder;D. Callaghan;R. Jongejan;C. D. Heijer;R. Ranasinghe
摘要Li，F.，货车盖尔德，P.H.A.J.M.，卡拉汉，D.P.，Jongejan，R.B.，登希耶角和Ranasinghe，R.，2013.考虑到海平面上升，波浪气候的概率建模和沙丘侵蚀预测关于未来海洋事件的知识将有助于各国政府更好地管理沿海地区的风险，鉴于预计的海平面上升、人口增长和经济发展，这是一项至关重要的任务。在这项研究中，一个31年的数据集的深水波气候参数和测深测量，（每年一次的跨海岸样带调查）进行了分析（1）以联合估计深水波浪条件的风暴事件变量，以及（2）利用模拟的波浪气候和可信的局部海平面上升情景，概率地计算沙丘侵蚀量和由此产生的海岸后退距离到2100年。概率海岸线后退模型的应用和调整的研究网站。基于此应用程序的结果，可以建立一个建模技术，提出一个框架，概率描述沿海风险沿着荷兰海岸。
ABSTRACT Li, F., van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M., Callaghan, D.P., Jongejan, R.B., den Hijer, C. and Ranasinghe, R., 2013. Probabilistic modelling of wave climate and predicting dune erosion considering sea level rise Knowledge about future oceanographic events will assist governments to better manage risk in coastal zones, a crucial task in the light of projected sea level rise, population growth and economic development. In this study, a 31-year data set of deep water wave climate parameters and bathymetry measurements (yearly cross-shore transect surveys) at Noordwijk, the Netherlands, were analyzed (1) to jointly estimate storm events variates of deep water wave conditions, and (2) to probabilistically compute dune erosion volume and the resulting coastal retreat distance with the simulated wave climate and plausible local sea level rise scenarios by 2100. The probabilistic coastline retreat models were applied and adjusted to the study site. Based on the outcomes of this application, a modeling technique can be established to propose a framework for probabilistically describing the coastal risk along the Dutch coast.