The timing of life–history events in a changing climate
The timing of life–history events in a changing climate
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气候变化中生活史事件的发生时间
DOI：
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发表时间：
2001
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Callaghan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Post;M. Forchhammer;N. Stenseth;T. Callaghan
虽然经验和理论研究表明，气候影响的时间在动物和植物的生活史事件，气候和事件的时间，如产卵，迁移或开花之间的相关性并没有揭示自然选择的机制，对生活史事件的运作。我们提出了一个一般的自回归模型的生活史事件的时间在全球气候的变化，像自回归模型的人口动态，允许一个更机械的理解气候，资源和竞争的作用。我们应用该模型的数据在50年的年度日期的第一次开花的三种植物在26个人口覆盖48纬度在挪威。与早期的研究一致，大多数种群和所有三个物种的植物在暖冬后开花较早。此外，我们的模型显示，提前开花反映了气候变暖下资源和密度依赖的人口限制的影响越来越大。该模型的应用，在其他类群的物候数据的见解将有助于我们了解的作用，内源性与外源性的过程中的生活史事件的时间在不断变化的气候的演变。
Although empirical and theoretical studies suggest that climate influences the timing of life-history events in animals and plants, correlations between climate and the timing of events such as egg–laying, migration or flowering do not reveal the mechanisms by which natural selection operates on life–history events. We present a general autoregressive model of the timing of life–history events in relation to variation in global climate that, like autoregressive models of population dynamics, allows for a more mechanistic understanding of the roles of climate, resources and competition. We applied the model to data on 50 years of annual dates of first flowering by three species of plants in 26 populations covering 48 of latitude in Norway. In agreement with earlier studies, plants in most populations and all three species bloomed earlier following warmer winters. Moreover, our model revealed that earlier blooming reflected increasing influences of resources and density–dependent population limitation under climatic warming. The insights available from the application of this model to phenological data in other taxa will contribute to our understanding of the roles of endogenous versus exogenous processes in the evolution of the timing of life–history events in a changing climate.