The downstream air pollution impacts of the transition from coal to natural gas in the United States
The downstream air pollution impacts of the transition from coal to natural gas in the United States
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DOI：
10.1038/s41893-019-0453-5
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发表时间：
2020-01-06
影响因子：
27.6
通讯作者：
Burney, Jennifer A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Burney, Jennifer A.
美国最近从煤炭转向天然气，作为电力生产的主要原料，降低了部门二氧化碳排放的强度，但由于监测方面的差距，人们对其下游与污染有关的影响知之甚少。在这里，我分析了已经离线的旧设备和已经上线的新设备，以经验地将技术切换与观察到的气溶胶和臭氧变化以及随后对人类健康、作物产量和区域气候的影响联系起来。从2005年到2016年，在美国大陆，燃煤机组的退役与附近污染浓度的降低以及随后死亡率的降低和作物产量的增加有关。在此期间，燃煤机组的关闭总共挽救了26,610人(5%-95%可信区间，2,725-49,680人)的生命和5.7亿蒲式耳(2.49-8.78亿)蒲式耳的玉米、大豆和小麦；如果计入与污染运输相关的溢出效应，这些估计数字会更高。初级和次级气溶胶负荷的变化也改变了区域大气反射率，使平均大气顶瞬时辐射强迫增加了0.50Wm(-2)。尽管淘汰老旧的燃煤机组有相当大的好处，但取代它们的较新的天然气和燃煤机组并不完全是良性的。
The recent shift in the United States from coal to natural gas as a primary feedstock for the production of electric power has reduced the intensity of sectoral carbon dioxide emissions, but-due to gaps in monitoring-its downstream pollution-related effects have been less well understood. Here, I analyse old units that have been taken offline and new units that have come online to empirically link technology switches to observed aerosol and ozone changes and subsequent impacts on human health, crop yields and regional climate. Between 2005 and 2016 in the continental United States, decommissioning of a coal-fired unit was associated with reduced nearby pollution concentrations and subsequent reductions in mortality and increases in crop yield. In total during this period, the shutdown of coal-fired units saved an estimated 26,610 (5%-95% confidence intervals (CI), 2,725-49,680) lives and 570 million (249-878 million) bushels of corn, soybeans and wheat in their immediate vicinities; these estimates increase when pollution transport-related spillovers are included. Changes in primary and secondary aerosol burdens also altered regional atmospheric reflectivity, raising the average top of atmosphere instantaneous radiative forcing by 0.50 W m(-2). Although there are considerable benefits of decommissioning older coal-fired units, the newer natural gas and coal-fired units that have supplanted them are not entirely benign.