Impacts of the TPP Agreement on Beef Demand in Japan: An Analysis by Class-猫眼课题宝

DOI：

10.18480/jjae.20.0_1

发表时间：

2018-03

期刊：

影响因子：

通讯作者：

中科院分区：

其他

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作者：

Kohya Takahashi;K. Maeda

跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（TPP）谈判于2015年10月达成原则协议，在设定了对日本牛肉进口的数量保障后，决定分16年将关税从38.5%降至9%。因此，日本国内担心此次牛肉关税下调将对国内牛肉生产，特别是据称质量接近进口牛肉的乳牛肉生产产生影响。为了分析这些影响，首先需要从经济计量学的角度明确目前日本牛肉的需求结构。从这一观点出发进行计量分析的研究有Mori and Lin（1990）、Hayes et al.（1990）、Wahl et al.（1991）、Kawashima and Sari（2010）、Matsuda（2014）。但是，Hayes等（1990）、Wahl等（1991）、Kawashima and Sari（2010）、Matsuda（2014）等的研究存在的问题是，将进口牛肉和日本牛肉（和牛）作为同一种商品，没有分析进口牛肉和进口牛肉之间的关系，这一点在目前特别值得注意。与此相反，Mori and Lin（1990）的研究虽然将分析期间设定在牛肉进口关税化之前，但在将牛肉分为日本牛肉、乳牛肉和进口牛肉三类后，使用需求系统模型进行了分析，明确了日本牛肉和乳牛肉不与进口牛肉竞争。但1991年关税化后，一方面进口牛肉需求量增加，另一方面乳用牛肉需求量减少，进口牛肉与乳用牛肉呈现竞争关系。此外，Mori和Lin（1990）的研究的一个问题是，他们没有考虑时间序列数据的非平稳性。在使用时间序列数据时，为了防止“虚假回归”，需要使用考虑到数据的非平稳性的分析模型和估计方法; TPP协定对日本牛肉需求的影响1

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations reached an agreement in principle in October 2015, and, after setting a quantity safeguard for Japan’s beef imports, it was determined that the tariff would be reduced over 16 years from 38.5% to 9%. Therefore, there are concerns in Japan about the impact that this reduction in the beef tariff will have on the domestic production of beef, particularly on the production of dairy beef, which is said to be close to imported beef in quality. To analyze these impacts, it is primarily necessary to econometrically clarify the current demand structure for beef in Japan. Previous studies that have conducted an econometric analysis from this viewpoint are Mori and Lin (1990), Hayes et al. (1990), Wahl et al. (1991), Kawashima and Sari (2010), and Matsuda (2014). However, a problem with the studies done by Hayes et al. (1990), Wahl et al. (1991), Kawashima and Sari (2010), and Matsuda (2014) is that they aggregated dairy beef with imported beef or Japanese beef (Wagyu beef) as one good and did not analyze the relationship between imported beef and dairy beef, which is currently particularly noteworthy. Conversely, in Mori and Lin (1990), although the period of the analysis was set prior to the tariffication of beef imports, after disaggregating beef into three classes―Japanese beef, dairy beef, and imported beef―they conducted an analysis using a demand system model and clarified that Japanese beef and dairy beef did not compete with imported beef. However, after the tariffication in 1991, on one hand, the quantity demanded for imported beef increased, but on the other hand, the quantity demanded for dairy beef decreased, so it appeared that imported beef and dairy beef were in a competitive relationship. Furthermore, a problem with the study of Mori and Lin (1990) is that they did not consider the nonstationarity of time series data. When using time series data, to prevent “spurious regression,” it is necessary to use an analysis model and estimation method that takes into consideration the non-stationarity of the data; Impacts of the TPP Agreement on Beef Demand in Japan 1

Impacts of the TPP Agreement on Beef Demand in Japan: An Analysis by Class

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