PSYCHOLOGICAL MODELS OF DEFERRED DECISION-MAKING
PSYCHOLOGICAL MODELS OF DEFERRED DECISION-MAKING
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DOI：
10.1016/0022-2496(88)90042-9
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发表时间：
1988-06-01
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
RAPOPORT, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BUSEMEYER, JR;RAPOPORT, A
在两种状态延迟决策任务中，两种相互排斥的自然状态之一负责生成一系列独立、同分布且代价高昂的观察结果。购买每个观测值后，决策者必须 (a) 停止购买昂贵的观测值并做出有利于这两个状态之一的最终选择，或者 (b) 继续购买至少一个观测值。我们描述了一种称为模式分析的新方法，用于区分延迟决策的替代模型。评估了七种不同的心理模型，包括最佳停止规则、固定采样、随机游走、固定遗忘、赛马或累加器、跑步和混合停止规则。报告了这七个模型中每一个模型所暗示的基本属性的违反情况。最有前途的心理模型是近视停止规则，它规定购买观察结果，直到购买 n 个观察结果后做出最终决策的预期损失小于或等于购买 n + 1 个观察结果的成本总和。
In a two-state deferred decision making task one of two mutually exclusive states of nature is responsible for generating a sequence of independent, identically distributed, and costly observations. After purchasing each observation, the decision maker must either (a) stop purchasing costly observations and make a terminal choice favoring one of the two states, or (b) continue purchasing at least one more observation. We describe a new method, called pattern analysis, for distinguishing alternative models of deferred decision making. Seven different psychological models are evaluated including the optimal stopping rule, fixed sampling, random walk, fixed forgetting, horse race or accumulator, runs,and hybrid stopping rules. Violations of basic properties implied by each of these seven models are reported. The most promising psychological model was a myopic stopping rule, which prescribes purchasing observations until the expected loss of making a terminal decision after purchasing n observations is less than or equal to the sum of the costs of purchasing n + 1 observations.