Effects of climate change on thermal properties of lakes and reservoirs, and possible implications
Effects of climate change on thermal properties of lakes and reservoirs, and possible implications
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DOI：
10.1007/s00477-010-0414-z
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发表时间：
2011-05
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
G. Sahoo;S. Schladow;J. Reuter;R. Coats
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Sahoo;S. Schladow;J. Reuter;R. Coats
气象驱动的过程对湖泊内部的加热、冷却和混合产生了巨大而多样的影响。因此，持续的全球变暖和气候变化将影响湖泊的热性质、动力学和生态系统。气候变化对太浩湖（在美国的加州和内华达州）的影响进行了调查，作为一个案例研究的气候变化对物理过程发生在一个湖泊。在太浩盆地，气温数据显示上升趋势，流量趋势表明融雪较早。盆地的降水正在从降雪转向降雨，强降雨事件的频率正在增加。过去38年（1970-2007年）的湖水温度记录显示，太浩湖正在以每年0.013°C的平均速度变暖。利用三个大气环流模式（GCM）对2001-2100年的气温、降水、长波辐射、向下短波辐射和风速等气象变量的未来变化趋势进行了预测。各环流模式的天气变量未来变化趋势与其他环流模式不同。一系列的模拟年到未来（2000-2040年）建立使用流量和相关的负载，气象数据集为1994-2004年期间。选择未来模拟年份和天气变量的趋势，以便：（1）未来模拟的变暖趋势将与观测到的变暖趋势（0.013°C/年）一致;（2）未来混合模式频率将与历史混合模式频率密切匹配。40年的模拟结果表明，湖泊继续变得更加温暖和稳定，混合减少。塔霍湖的持续变暖对管理生物多样性和保持湖泊清澈度的努力具有重要意义。
Meteorologic-driven processes exert large and diverse impacts on lakes’ internal heating, cooling, and mixing. Thus, continued global warming and climate change will affect lakes’ thermal properties, dynamics, and ecosystem. The impact of climate change on Lake Tahoe (in the states of California and Nevada in the United States) is investigated here, as a case study of climate change effects on the physical processes occurring within a lake. In the Tahoe basin, air temperature data show upward trends and streamflow trends indicate earlier snowmelt. Precipitation in the basin is shifting from snow to rain, and the frequency of intense rainfall events is increasing. In-lake water temperature records of the past 38 years (1970–2007) show that Lake Tahoe is warming at an average rate of 0.013°C/year. The future trends of weather variables, such as air temperature, precipitation, longwave radiation, downward shortwave radiation, and wind speed are estimated from predictions of three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the period 2001–2100. Future trends of weather variables of each GCM are found to be different to those of the other GCMs. A series of simulation years into the future (2000–2040) is established using streamflows and associated loadings, and meteorologic data sets for the period 1994–2004. Future simulation years and trends of weather variables are selected so that: (1) future simulated warming trend would be consistent with the observed warming trend (0.013°C/year); and (2) future mixing pattern frequency would closely match with the historical mixing pattern frequency. Results of 40-year simulations show that the lake continues to become warmer and more stable, and mixing is reduced. Continued warming in the Tahoe has important implications for efforts towards managing biodiversity and maintaining clarity of the lake.