An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets
An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1778
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发表时间：
2013-04-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Aspinall, W. P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bamber, J. L.;Aspinall, W. P.
政府间气候变化专门委员会的第四次评估报告（AR4）指出了冰盖未来演变的预测能力存在重大差距。因此，有人认为 AR4 对这一来源未来海平面上升的估计可能被低估了。人们已经尝试了解决这个问题的各种方法，包括半经验模型和概念研究。在这里，我们使用结构化启发方法报告了关于未来冰盖贡献的不确定性的专家观点的正式汇集。我们发现，这种贡献的中值估计为 29 厘米，远大于 AR4，而第 95 个百分位数的上限为 84 厘米，这意味着到 2100 年海平面上升超过一米的风险是可以想象的。在最近的冰盖行为是由于冰盖气候系统的变化还是反映了长期趋势这一关键问题上，专家的意见非常不确定且尚未确定。
A major gap in predictive capability concerning the future evolution of the ice sheets was identified in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As a consequence, it has been suggested that the AR4 estimates of future sea-level rise from this source may have been underestimated. Various approaches for addressing this problem have been tried, including semi-empirical models and conceptual studies. Here, we report a formalized pooling of expert views on uncertainties in future ice-sheet contributions using a structured elicitation approach. We find that the median estimate of such contributions is 29 cm-substantially larger than in the AR4-while the upper 95th percentile value is 84 cm, implying a conceivable risk of a sea-level rise of greater than a metre by 2100. On the critical question of whether recent ice-sheet behaviour is due to variability in the ice sheet-climate system or reflects a long-term trend, expert opinion is shown to be both very uncertain and undecided.