Integrated wildfire risk assessment: Framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA
Integrated wildfire risk assessment: Framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA
复制标题
综合野火风险评估：美国蒙大拿州刘易斯和克拉克国家森林的框架开发和应用
DOI：
10.1002/ieam.1365
复制
发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
D. Calkin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Matthew P. Thompson;Joe H. Scott;Don Helmbrecht;D. Calkin
野火的财政、社会经济和生态影响继续挑战着美国的联邦土地管理机构。近年来，政策制定者和管理者越来越多地转向风险分析领域，以更好地管理野火并减轻高价值资源和资产（HVRA）的损失。评估野火风险需要多个组件的相互作用，包括整合野火模拟输出与HVRA的地理空间识别和火灾对HVRA的影响的表征。我们提出了一个综合和系统的风险评估框架，包括3个主要分析组件：1）随机野火模拟和燃烧概率建模，以表征野火危害，2）基于专家的建模，以表征火灾影响，3）多标准决策分析，以表征风险HVRA的偏好结构。我们展示了应用这个框架进行野火风险评估的小带评估区内的刘易斯和克拉克国家森林在蒙大拿州，美国。我们特别关注我们的方法，以获取和封装专家的判断，其中我们：1）坚持在生态风险评估中使用专家判断的结构化过程，2）将与特定景观和HVRA有直接联系的当地资源科学家和火灾/燃料专家用作我们的专家基础，以及3）引入多变量响应函数来表征HVRA的火灾效应，该HVRA考虑火灾行为之外的生物物理变量。我们预计，这项工作将进一步提高野火风险科学的水平，并将导致风险评估的额外应用，为土地管理规划提供信息。Integr Environ Assess Manag 2013; 9：329-342.© 2012 SETAC
The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert‐based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at‐risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2013; 9: 329–342. © 2012 SETAC