Parallel comparison of the northern winter stratospheric circulation in reanalysis and in CMIP5 models
Parallel comparison of the northern winter stratospheric circulation in reanalysis and in CMIP5 models
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DOI：
10.1007/s00376-014-4192-2
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发表时间：
2015-04
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Jian Rao;R. Ren;Yang Yang-Yang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jian Rao;R. Ren;Yang Yang-Yang
对6个再分析产品和24个CMIP 5模式的北方冬季平流层环流气候和主导振荡模态进行了平行比较。结果表明，NCEP/NCAR、NECP/DOE、ERA 40、ERA-Interim和JRA 25再分析资料对平流层环流的气候学和年周期的描述是一致的。然而，20 CR再分析表现出显着的“冷极”的偏见，伴随着一个更强的平流层极地急流，类似于在一些CMIP 5模式。与大多数耦合大气环流模式（GCMs）中1-2个月的季节漂移相比，大多数地球系统模式（ESM）中平流层纬向风的季节循环与再分析结果吻合得很好。与气候学相似，极涡振荡（PVO）事件的振幅在CMIP 5模式中也存在差异。大多数GCM的PVO振幅相对较弱，而大多数ESM的PVO振幅更接近实际。与某些CMIP 5大气环流模式中的“冷极”偏置和较弱的振荡有关，PVO事件的频率被CMIP 5大气环流模式显著低估;而在大多数ESM中，PVO事件的频率与再分析结果相当。再分析中的PVO事件（除20 CR外）主要发生在仲冬至早春（1 - 3月），但在某些CMIP 5模式中存在1-2个月的延迟，尤其是在大多数CMIP 5模式中。PVO时间序列的长期趋势与大多数CMIP 5模型中PVO事件频率的长期变化不一致。
A parallel comparison is made of the circulation climatology and the leading oscillation mode of the northern winter stratosphere among six reanalysis products and 24 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. The results reveal that the NCEP/NCAR, NECP/DOE, ERA40, ERA-Interim and JRA25 reanalyses are quite consistent in describing the climatology and annual cycle of the stratospheric circulation. The 20CR reanalysis, however, exhibits a remarkable “cold pole” bias accompanied by a much stronger stratospheric polar jet, similar as in some CMIP5 models. Compared to the 1–2 month seasonal drift in most coupled general circulation models (GCMs), the seasonal cycle of the stratospheric zonal wind in most earth system models (ESMs) agrees very well with reanalysis. Similar to the climatology, the amplitude of Polar Vortex Oscillation (PVO) events also varies among CMIP5 models. The PVO amplitude in most GCMs is relatively weaker than in reanalysis, while that in most of the ESMs is more realistic. In relation to the “cold pole” bias and the weaker oscillation in some CMIP5 GCMs, the frequency of PVO events is significantly underestimated by CMIP5 GCMs; while in most ESMs, it is comparable to that in reanalysis. The PVO events in reanalysis (except in 20CR) mainly occur from mid-winter to early spring (January–March); but in some of the CMIP5 models, a 1–2 month delay exists, especially in most of the CMIP5 GCMs. The long-term trend of the PVO time series does not correspond to long-term changes in the frequency of PVO events in most of the CMIP5 models.