National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9·1 million participants.
National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9·1 million participants.
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(10)62037-5
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发表时间：
2011-02-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors of Chronic Diseases Collaborating Group (Body Mass Index)
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Finucane MM;Stevens GA;Cowan MJ;Danaei G;Lin JK;Paciorek CJ;Singh GM;Gutierrez HR;Lu Y;Bahalim AN;Farzadfar F;Riley LM;Ezzati M;Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors of Chronic Diseases Collaborating Group (Body Mass Index)
体重增加是一个主要的公共卫生问题。然而，全球范围内对体重指数（BMI）长期趋势的比较分析很少，也没有使用最近的国家健康检查调查。我们估计了199个国家和地区20岁及以上成年人的BMI均值趋势及其不确定性。数据来自已发表和未发表的健康检查调查和流行病学研究。对于每种性别，我们使用贝叶斯分层模型按年龄、国家和年份估计BMI，以说明给定的研究是否具有全国代表性。1980年至2008年间，男性全球平均BMI以0.4（95%不确定性区间0.2，0.6，真实增加的后验概率（PP）> 0.999）kg/m2/十年的年增长率增加，女性为0.5（0.3-0.7，PP > 0.999）。全国妇女的BMI变化范围从19个国家的非显著下降到汤加和库克群岛的上升超过2.5 kg/m2/十年（PP > 0.999）。除少数国家外，所有国家的男性BMI均有所增加，瑙鲁和库克群岛达到2 kg/m2/decade以上，PP > 0.999。2008年，大洋洲一些国家的男性和女性身体质量指数最高，瑙鲁的男性达到33.9（32.8，35.0）公斤/平方米，女性达到35.0（33.6，36.3）公斤/平方米。孟加拉国的女性BMI最低（20.5; 19.8，21.3）kg/m2，刚果民主共和国的男性BMI为19.9（18.2，21.5），撒哈拉以南非洲、东亚、南亚和东南亚的一些国家的男女BMI也低于21.5 kg/m2。在高收入国家中，美国的BMI最高，其次是新西兰。2008年，全球估计有14.7亿成年人BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2;其中2.05亿（193，217）男性和2.97亿（280，315）女性肥胖。从全球来看，自1980年以来，平均BMI一直在上升。自1980年以来的趋势以及2008年的平均人口BMI在各国之间差异很大。大多数国家都需要采取干预措施和政策，以遏制或扭转这种增长，并通过针对其代谢介质来减轻高BMI对健康的影响。
Rising body weight is a major public health concern. However there have been few worldwide comparative analyses of long-term trends of body mass index (BMI), and none that have used recent national health examination surveys. We estimated trends in mean in BMI and their uncertainties for adults 20 years of age and older in 199 countries and territories. Data were from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiologic studies. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate BMI by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a given study was nationally representative. Between 1980 and 2008, global mean BMI increased at an annualized rate of 0.4 (95% uncertainty interval 0.2, 0.6, posterior probability (PP) of being a true increase > 0.999) kg/m2/decade for men and 0.5 (0.3–0.7, PP > 0.999) for women. National BMI change for women ranged from non-significant declines in 19 countries to rising over 2.5 (PP > 0.999) kg/m2/decade in Tonga and Cook Islands. There was an increase in male BMI in all but a few countries, reaching over 2 kg/m2/decade in Nauru and Cook Islands, PP > 0.999. Male and female BMIs in 2008 were highest in some Oceania countries, reaching 33.9 (32.8, 35.0) kg/m2 (men) and 35.0 (33.6, 36.3) (women) in Nauru. Female BMI was lowest in Bangladesh (20.5; 19.8, 21.3) kg/m2 and male BMI in Democratic Republic of the Congo 19.9 (18.2, 21.5), with BMI also below 21.5 kg/m2 for both sexes in a few countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and East, South, and Southeast Asia. USA had the highest BMI among high-income countries, followed by New Zealand. In 2008, an estimated 1.47 billion adults worldwide had BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2; of these 205 (193, 217) million men and 297 (280, 315) million women were obese. Globally, mean BMI increased since 1980. The trends since 1980, and mean population BMI in 2008, varied substantially across nations. Interventions and policies that can curb or reverse the increase, and mitigate the health effects of high BMI by targeting its metabolic mediators, are needed in most countries.