The gravity model and trade in intermediate inputs
The gravity model and trade in intermediate inputs
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/twec.12947
复制
发表时间：
2020-03-25
期刊：
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Kiyota, Kozo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Greaney, Theresa M.;Kiyota, Kozo
引力模型是否同样适用于中间投入贸易和最终产品贸易？本文的贡献之一是我们明确解释了可用作中间投入或最终产品的产品的双重性质。我们发现结构引力模型在描述最终产品和中间投入的双边贸易方面表现得非常好。此外，即使我们关注中间投入贸易在贸易中所占份额不断增长的一个子集国家（即“亚洲工厂”），这种情况仍然成立。然而，即使模型考虑了产品的双重性质，重力模型也可能由于模型指定错误（即排除国内贸易）和/或样本选择而表现不佳。我们证明，引力模型的不佳表现并不是由于中间投入的大量贸易流量所致，这支持了该模型的继续使用，因为这些贸易流量在全球范围内的重要性持续增长。
Is the gravity model as applicable to trade in intermediate inputs as it is to trade in final goods? One of the contributions of this paper is that we explicitly account for the dual nature of products that can be used as either intermediate inputs or final goods. We find that the structural gravity model performs extremely well for describing bilateral trade in final goods and in intermediate inputs. Moreover, this continues to hold even when we focus on a subset of countries in which intermediate inputs trade accounts for a growing share of trade, namely "Factory Asia." However, the gravity model may perform poorly due to model misspecification (i.e., exclusion of intranational trade) and/or sample selection, even after the model considers the dual nature of products. We demonstrate that the poor performance of the gravity model is not attributable to the large trade flow of intermediate inputs, which supports the continued use of the model as these trade flows continue to grow in importance worldwide.