On the quantum and tempo of fertility
On the quantum and tempo of fertility
复制标题
DOI：
10.2307/2807974
复制
发表时间：
1998-06-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Feeney, G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bongaarts, J;Feeney, G
自 20 世纪 40 年代以来，人口统计学家就知道，生育时间的变化会扭曲经期生育率的标准衡量标准，例如广泛使用的总生育率。女性推迟生育的年份，生育率会下降，而生育加速的年份，生育率会升高。这种失真通常被忽略，因为还没有普遍接受的方法来纠正它。这项研究提出了一种消除总和生育率节奏变化造成的扭曲的方法。该方法的关键假设是，生育率变化的主要力量是时期效应，而不是同期群效应，这一假设得到了过去研究的支持。对美国生育率趋势的调整程序的应用表明，过去 25 年对低于更替生育率的担忧在很大程度上是错误的。没有因孩子年龄增长而引起的扭曲；在此期间，生育率的基本水平基本稳定在接近每个妇女生育两个孩子。自 20 世纪 80 年代中期以来，台湾传统衡量的生育率低于更替水平，这在很大程度上归因于节奏效应。
Demographers have known since the 1940s that standard measures of period fertility, such as the widely used total fertility rate, are distorted by changes in the timing of childbearing. Period fertility rates are depressed during years in which women delay childbearing and inflated in years when childbearing is accelerated. This distortion is usually ignored because there has been no generally accepted method correcting for it. This study proposes a method for removing the distortions caused by tempo changes from the total fertility rate. The key assumption of the method is that period effects, rather than cohort effects, are the primary force in fertility change, an assumption supported by past research. An application of the adjustment procedure to fertility trends in United States shows that concern over below-replacement fertility in the past 25 years has been largely misplaced. Without the distortion induced by the rising age at child; bearing, the underlying level of fertility was essentially constant at close to two children per woman throughout this period. That conventionally measured fertility in Taiwan was below replacement since the mid-1980s is also largely attributable to tempo effects.