The increasing global environmental consequences of a weakening US–China crop trade relationship
The increasing global environmental consequences of a weakening US–China crop trade relationship
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DOI：
10.1038/s43016-021-00338-1
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发表时间：
2021-08
期刊：
影响因子：
23.2
通讯作者：
Guolin Yao;Xin Zhang;E. Davidson;F. Taheripour
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Guolin Yao;Xin Zhang;E. Davidson;F. Taheripour
对中国进口美国农产品加征关税的考虑主要集中在经济影响上，而对环境后果的关注较少。在这里，我们使用一个全球可计算一般均衡模型来评估中国的报复性农业关税引起的长期作物组合的变化，从而评估基于特定区域和特定作物数据库的不同作物生产组合所施加的环境压力。我们发现，中国的关税导致美国氮磷污染和蓝水开采的意外增加，因为农民从大豆转向污染更严重的作物。如果中国的大豆需求转移到巴西，将通过作物组合的变化减轻巴西的氮污染和用水压力，但可能会增加磷污染和森林砍伐的额外压力。在全球范围内，贸易政策可以通过促进养分和水利用效率最高的作物生产来帮助减少养分污染和水源枯竭。
The consideration of tariffs on China’s imports of US agricultural products has focused on economic impacts, while the environmental consequences have received less attention. Here we use a global computable general equilibrium model to evaluate long-term crop portfolio changes induced by China’s retaliatory agricultural tariffs and thereby assess the environmental stresses imposed by different crop production portfolios based on region-specific and crop-specific databases. We show that China’s tariffs cause unintended increases in nitrogen and phosphorus pollution and blue water extraction in the United States as farmers shift from soybeans to more pollution-causing crops. If diverted to Brazil, China’s soybean demands would reduce Brazilian stresses of nitrogen pollution and water use through crop portfolio changes, but may add additional pressures on phosphorus pollution and deforestation. On a global scale, trade policies could help to reduce nutrient pollution and water source depletion by promoting crop production where it is most efficient in terms of nutrient and water use.