Identification of the geographical extent of an area benefiting from a transportation project: A generalized synthetic control
Identification of the geographical extent of an area benefiting from a transportation project: A generalized synthetic control
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DOI：
10.5198/jtlu.2021.1784
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发表时间：
2021-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
T. Kunimi;H. Seya
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Kunimi;H. Seya
在评估基础设施项目的效益时，重要的是要考虑到谁从该项目中受益，以及效益在哪里。然而，没有一种既定的方法来准确地确定后者。为了填补这一方法论空白，本研究提出了一种基于广义综合控制方法的交通项目受益区域地理范围的事后识别方法。具体地说，它允许在一次运行中将多个处理单元与它们的反事实进行比较--将每个处理地点的地价变化(实际结果)与反事实结果进行比较，然后估计对处理地点的个别(即，单元水平)处理效果。这种方法被经验地应用于日本大型重载铁路--筑波快线项目。我们的方法能够检测到1)利益发生率的复杂空间形状；2)负面溢出；以及3)选择(火车路线)的增加，这通常不在基于享乐主义方法的利益评估系统中考虑，但可以转化为地价。
In evaluating the benefits of an infrastructure project, it is essential to consider who is benefiting from the project and where benefits are located. However, there is no established way to accurately determine the latter. To fill this methodological gap, this study proposes an approach for the ex-post identification of the geographical extent of an area benefiting from a transportation project based on a generalized synthetic control method. Specifically, it allows comparing multiple treatment units with their counterfactuals in a single run—changes in land prices (actual outcome) at each treated site are compared to the counterfactual outcome, and the individual (i.e., unit-level) treatment effect on the treated site is then estimated. This approach is empirically applied to a large-scale Japanese heavy railway, the Tsukuba Express line project. Our approach enables the detection of 1) the complicated spatial shape of benefit incidence; 2) negative spillovers; and 3) the increase in options (train routes), typically not considered in a benefit evaluation system based on the hedonic approach, but which can be capitalized into land prices.