Changes in daily extreme precipitation events in South China from 1961 to 2011
Changes in daily extreme precipitation events in South China from 1961 to 2011
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s11442-015-1153-3
复制
发表时间：
2015-06
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Zhengguo Ren;Mingjun Zhang;Sheng-jie Wang;Fang Qiang;Xiaofan Zhu;Leilei Dong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhengguo Ren;Mingjun Zhang;Sheng-jie Wang;Fang Qiang;Xiaofan Zhu;Leilei Dong
利用国家气象信息中心发布的0.5°×0.5°格点数据集和气象站1961-2011年逐日降水资料，对该格点降水数据集在华南地区的可靠性进行了评价。选取世界气象组织推荐的5个降水指数，对中国南方极端降水的变化进行了研究。结果表明：栅格插值数据与观测数据的偏差是有限的，偏差在- 10% ~ 0之间的站点占50.64%；格网数据与观测数据的相关系数大部分在0.80以上。降水指数的平均值表现出显著的空间差异，西北偏干燥，东南偏湿润。1961—2011年最大5天降水量（RX5day）、极湿日降水量（R95）、极强降水日数（R20mm）和简单日强度指数（SDII）的趋势值分别为0.17 mm·a−1、1.14 mm·a−1、0.02 d·a−1和0.01 mm·d·a−1，而连续湿日数（CWD）减少了- 0.05 d·a−1。降水指数的趋势幅度存在空间差异，rx5天、SDII和R95分别有60.85%、75.32%和75.74%的格框呈增加趋势。降水指数与总降水量呈高度相关，在0.01水平上具有显著的统计学意义。
Based on the daily precipitation from a 0.5°×0.5° gridded dataset and meteorological stations during 1961–2011 released by National Meteorological Information Center, the reliability of this gridded precipitation dataset in South China was evaluated. Five precipitation indices recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) were selected to investigate the changes in precipitation extremes of South China. The results indicated that the bias between gridded data interpolated to given stations and the corresponding observed data is limited, and the proportion of the number of stations with bias between −10% and 0 is 50.64%. The correlation coefficients between gridded data and observed data are generally above 0.80 in most parts. The average of precipitation indices shows a significant spatial difference with drier northwest section and wetter southeast section. The trend magnitudes of the maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day), very wet day precipitation (R95), very heavy precipitation days (R20mm) and simple daily intensity index (SDII) are 0.17 mm·a−1, 1.14 mm·a−1, 0.02 d·a−1and 0.01 mm·d−1·a−1, respectively, while consecutive wet days (CWD) decrease by −0.05 d·a−1during 1961–2011. There is spatial disparity in trend magnitudes of precipitation indices, and approximate 60.85%, 75.32% and 75.74% of the grid boxes show increasing trends for RX5day, SDII and R95, respectively. There are high correlations between precipitation indices and total precipitation, which is statistically significant at the 0.01 level.