Multidecadal Variation in the Seasonal Predictability of Winter PNA and Its Sources
Multidecadal Variation in the Seasonal Predictability of Winter PNA and Its Sources
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DOI：
10.1029/2022gl099393
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发表时间：
2022-10
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Wangjie Yao;Xiaoqin Yan;Youmin Tang;Dejian Yang;Xiaoxiao Tan;Xunshu Song;Ting Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wangjie Yao;Xiaoqin Yan;Youmin Tang;Dejian Yang;Xiaoxiao Tan;Xunshu Song;Ting Liu
基于再分析和集合后向预报资料，研究了冬季太平洋-北美遥相关型的季节可预报性的年代际变化及其来源。结果表明，在20世纪的两端，PNA主要是由厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)驱动的，如果模式能够准确地预测PNA-ENSO的关系，那么PNA的季节性预测就有望得到很好的结果。20世纪中叶，PNA不仅受到ENSO的驱动，而且通过热带北太平洋的海-气耦合过程与太平洋年代际涛动密切相关。PNA季节性预报的改进需要模式准确地预报PNA-ENSO关系和热带北部太平洋的海-气耦合。
Based on reanalysis and ensemble hindcasts data, this work investigates the multidecadal variation in the seasonal predictability of the Pacific‐North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern during the winter and its sources. The results show that at the two ends of the 20th century, the PNA is mostly driven by the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and a good seasonal prediction of the PNA is expected if models can accurately predict the PNA‐ENSO relationship. During the middle 20th century, the PNA is not only driven by ENSO but also closely linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation through the air‐sea coupling process in the extratropical North Pacific. Improvements in the seasonal prediction of the PNA require models to accurately predict both the PNA‐ENSO relationship and the air‐sea coupling in the northern extratropical Pacific.