Plausible energy demand patterns in a growing global economy with climate policy
Plausible energy demand patterns in a growing global economy with climate policy
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-020-00975-7
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发表时间：
2021-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
G. Semieniuk;L. Taylor;Armon Rezai;D. Foley
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Semieniuk;L. Taylor;Armon Rezai;D. Foley
减少能源需求已成为限制气候变化的关键机制，但在不断增长的全球经济以及更重要的是其低收入部分，大量节省能源存在实际限制。使用关于能源和国内生产总值的新数据，我们表明，在政府间气候变化专门委员会的情景中，在所有地区采用相同的短期低能源增长轨迹，将全球变暖限制在1.5 °C，这是一个悬而未决的政策挑战。鉴于经济发展对工业化的依赖，我们讨论了将减少能源需求与强劲增长收入结合起来的这一挑战，以满足中低收入国家64亿人的需求。我们的结果突出表明，当区域经济发展由工业化推动时，在综合评估模型中处理能源需求减少的限制，而不是探索更快的能源供应脱碳，具有重要意义。考虑到所涉及的金融、投资和稳定问题，来自发展经济学和其他学科的见解可能有助于产生可信的假设。
Reducing the energy demand has become a key mechanism for limiting climate change, but there are practical limitations associated with large energy savings in a growing global economy and, importantly, its lower-income parts. Using new data on energy and GDP, we show that adopting the same near-term low-energy growth trajectory in all regions in IPCC scenarios limiting global warming to 1.5 °C presents an unresolved policy challenge. We discuss this challenge of combining energy demand reductions with robust income growth for the 6.4 billion people in middle- and low-income countries in light of the reliance of economic development on industrialization. Our results highlight the importance of addressing limits to energy demand reduction in integrated assessment modelling when regional economic development is powered by industrialization and of instead exploring faster energy supply decarbonization. Insights from development economics and other disciplines could help generate plausible assumptions given the financial, investment and stability issues involved.