The Predictability of Interdecadal Changes in ENSO Activity and ENSO Teleconnections
The Predictability of Interdecadal Changes in ENSO Activity and ENSO Teleconnections
复制标题
DOI：
10.1175/jcli3868.1
复制
发表时间：
2006-10
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
S. Power;M. Haylock;R. Colman;Xiangdong Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Power;M. Haylock;R. Colman;Xiangdong Wang
摘要厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）在气象研究中心（BMRC）局耦合大气环流模型（CGCM）的一个世纪之久的整合驱动澳大利亚的降雨和温度变化，通常与记录的观测变化一致：干燥/炎热的条件下更频繁地发生在厄尔尼诺年和潮湿/温和的条件下更频繁地发生在拉尼娜年。在6月至12月期间的观测和CGCM中，ENSO [通过Nino-4或南方涛动指数（SOI）测量]与全澳大利亚降雨和温度之间的关系被发现是非线性的：大的拉尼娜海表温度（SST）异常与大的澳大利亚响应密切相关（即，澳大利亚通常会变得更加潮湿），而厄尔尼诺SST异常的大小是一个较差的指南，如何干燥澳大利亚实际上会变得。澳大利亚在厄尔尼诺事件期间往往会变干，但干燥的程度与厄尔尼诺事件的严重程度并不紧密相关。
Abstract El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a century-long integration of a Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) drives rainfall and temperature changes over Australia that are generally consistent with documented observational changes: dry/hot conditions occur more frequently during El Nino years and wet/mild conditions occur more frequently during La Nina years. The relationship between ENSO [as measured by Nino-4 or the Southern Oscillation index (SOI), say] and all-Australia rainfall and temperature is found to be nonlinear in the observations and in the CGCM during June–December: a large La Nina sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is closely linked to a large Australian response (i.e., Australia usually becomes much wetter), whereas the magnitude of an El Nino SST anomaly is a poorer guide to how dry Australia will actually become. Australia tends to dry out during El Nino events, but the degree of drying is not as tightly linked to the magnitude...