OBSERVATIONAL PROCEDURE OF SETTLEMENT PREDICTION
OBSERVATIONAL PROCEDURE OF SETTLEMENT PREDICTION
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DOI：
10.3208/sandf1972.18.4_87
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发表时间：
1978-12
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
A. Asaoka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Asaoka
摘要 由于超孔隙水压力初始分布、排水长度、土体最终竖向应变和固结系数等条件在实际工程问题中有时具有很大的不确定性，因此采用固结方程解析解进行沉降预测并不总是有效。为此，新提出了观测沉降预测。首先，证明导出的线性常微分方程可以给出沉降-时间关系。然后，利用方程（自回归方程）的差分形式，提出了沉降预测的观测程序。提出了两种实用方法。一种是图解法，其优点是简单。另一种是基于非平稳随机过程的贝叶斯推理的方法，可以给出未来沉降的预测概率分布，进而为沉降问题的可靠度设计提供初步理论。所提出的方法被证明也适用于其他一些特殊问题，包括沙堆排水引起的沉降。
ABSTRACT The use of analytical solution of consolidation equation for settlement prediction is not always effective since such conditions as an initial distribution of excess pore water pressure, drain length, final vertical strain of soils and the coefficient of consolidation are sometimes quite uncertain in practical engineering problems. For this reason, an observational settlement prediction is freshly presented. First, the linear ordinary differential equation derived is demonstrated to give a settlement-time relationship. After that, by using the difference form of the equation (an autoregressive equation), observational procedure of settlement prediction is proposed. Two kinds of practical methods are presented. One is a graphical method, the advantage of which is its simplicity. The other is the method based on the Bayesian inference of the non stationary stochastic process, which can give a predictive probability distribution of future settlement and then also provide a preliminary theory for reliability-based design of settlement problems. The proposed methodology is demonstrated to be also applicable for some other special problems including settlement due to drainage from sand piles.