Polarization in the Media During an Election Campaign: A Dynamic Network Model Predicting Support and Attack Among Political Actors
Polarization in the Media During an Election Campaign: A Dynamic Network Model Predicting Support and Attack Among Political Actors
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DOI：
10.1080/10584609.2012.737417
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
7.5
通讯作者：
Kleinnijenhuis, Jan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
de Nooy, Wouter;Kleinnijenhuis, Jan
在多党竞选活动中，许多政党和候选人争夺媒体的关注、选民和政府的多数席位。负面竞选活动往往具有新闻价值，在争夺媒体关注的竞争中是一种有吸引力的策略。然而，对另一个政党的政治支持提供了另一种战略，因为它标志着更倾向于政府联盟。这里要解决的研究问题是：是什么促使一个政党在竞选活动中的特定日子在新闻媒体上支持或攻击另一个政党？我们分析了2006年荷兰全国大选期间新闻媒体报道的政治家和政党中支持和攻击的声明。将负面竞选和政治中间化研究的假设与社会网络分析的概念结合起来，我们预测报道的声明是表达了政治行为者的支持还是攻击。政党规模、政党意识形态和政治参与者的在任是重要的静态预测因素。动态预测指标表明，到目前为止，这场运动是如何演变的，包括对媒体最近提出的问题以及最近的攻击和支持声明的同意或分歧。需要动态预测来解释竞选期间媒体中政治参与者之间的两极分化。结果显示，报道的言论影响了竞选活动的进程。
In multiparty election campaigns, many political parties and candidates compete for media attention, voters, and a government majority. Negative campaigning, which is often newsworthy, is an attractive strategy in the competition for media attention. However, political support for another party offers an alternative strategy because it signals preferred government coalitions. The research question to be addressed here is: What is prompting a political party to either support or attack another party in a news medium on a specific day in an election campaign? We analyze statements of support and attack among politicians and political parties reported in the news media during the 2006 Dutch national election campaign. Combining hypotheses from research in negative campaigning and the mediatization of politics with concepts from social network analysis, we predict whether a reported statement expresses support or an attack among political actors. Party size, party ideology, and incumbency of the political actors are important static predictors. Dynamic predictors, which indicate how the campaign has evolved thus far, include agreement or disagreement on issues recently raised in the media as well as recent attacks and support statements. The dynamic predictors are needed to explain polarization among political actors in the media during the campaign. The results show that reported statements affect the course of the election campaign.