Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach
Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach
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DOI：
10.1038/s41597-020-0530-7
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发表时间：
2020-06-30
期刊：
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Davis, Basil
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kaufman, Darrell;McKay, Nicholas;Davis, Basil
一个广泛的新的多代理古温度时间序列数据库（温度12k）使全球平均地表温度（GMST）和相关不确定性的分析比以前更可靠。我们采用5种不同的统计方法重建了过去12000年（全新世）的GMST。每种方法都使用不同的方法来平均全球分布的时间序列，并表征各种不确定性来源，包括代理温度、年代学和方法选择。将这些结果汇总在一起，生成了一个多方法综合的可信GMST和纬带温度重建结果，具有实际的不确定性范围。最温暖的200年间隔发生在6500年前左右，当时GMST比19世纪(中位数，5（th), 95（th）百分位）高0.7摄氏度（0.3,1.8）。在全新世全球热最大值之后，GMST以每1000年-0.08℃的平均速度冷却（-0.24,-0.05）。多方法集成和用于生成它们的代码突出了Temperature 12k数据库的实用性，并且它们现在可用于旨在了解地球系统全新世进化的研究。
An extensive new multi-proxy database of paleo-temperature time series (Temperature 12k) enables a more robust analysis of global mean surface temperature (GMST) and associated uncertainties than was previously available. We applied five different statistical methods to reconstruct the GMST of the past 12,000 years (Holocene). Each method used different approaches to averaging the globally distributed time series and to characterizing various sources of uncertainty, including proxy temperature, chronology and methodological choices. The results were aggregated to generate a multi-method ensemble of plausible GMST and latitudinal-zone temperature reconstructions with a realistic range of uncertainties. The warmest 200-year-long interval took place around 6500 years ago when GMST was 0.7 degrees C (0.3, 1.8) warmer than the 19(th)Century (median, 5(th), 95(th)percentiles). Following the Holocene global thermal maximum, GMST cooled at an average rate -0.08 degrees C per 1000 years (-0.24, -0.05). The multi-method ensembles and the code used to generate them highlight the utility of the Temperature 12k database, and they are now available for future use by studies aimed at understanding Holocene evolution of the Earth system.