THE AGING OF AMERICA - IMPACT ON HEALTH-CARE COSTS
THE AGING OF AMERICA - IMPACT ON HEALTH-CARE COSTS
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DOI：
10.1001/jama.263.17.2335
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发表时间：
1990-05-02
影响因子：
120.7
通讯作者：
GURALNIK, JM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
SCHNEIDER, EL;GURALNIK, JM
老年群体中年龄最大的那部分人群的快速增长将对未来的医疗保健成本产生重大影响。我们利用美国人口普查局目前对老年群体增长的预测，来预估医疗保险、养老院、痴呆症和髋部骨折的未来成本。如果老年人口的健康状况没有重大改变，这些医疗保健成本将大幅上升，这在很大程度上是由于85岁及以上的“高龄老人”预计会增长。到2040年，高龄老人的医疗保险费用（按1987年不变美元计算）可能会增加六倍。这些预计的医疗保健成本增长不太可能仅仅通过成本控制策略来抑制。能否成功控制这些医疗保健成本将与我们预防和/或治愈那些因年龄增长而产生且对长期护理需求最大的疾病和失调的能力相关。
The rapid growth of the oldest age groups will have a major impact on future health care costs. We use current US Census Bureau projections for the growth of our oldest age groups to project future costs for Medicare, nursing homes, dementia, and hip fractures. Without major changes in the health of our older population, these health care costs will escalate enormously, in large part as a result of the projected growth of the "oldest old", those aged 85 years and above. Medicare costs for the oldest old may increase sixfold by the year 2040 (in constant 1987 dollars). It is unlikely that these projected increases in health care costs will be restrained solely by cost-containment strategies. Successful containment of these health care costs will be related to our ability to prevent and/or cure those age-dependent diseases and disorders that will produce the greatest needs for long-term care.