Quantitative biogeography: Decreasing and more variable dynamics of critical species in an iconic meta‐ecosystem
Quantitative biogeography: Decreasing and more variable dynamics of critical species in an iconic meta‐ecosystem
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定量生物地理学：标志性元生态系统中关键物种的动态减少且更加可变
DOI：
10.1002/ecm.1556
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Gravem, Sarah A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Menge, Bruce A.;Robinson, Jonathan W.;Poirson, Brittany N.;Gravem, Sarah A.
几十年来，生态系统的稳定性一直引起生态学家的兴趣，而全球气候变化的认识使这种兴趣更加突出和集中。稳定性下降的一个可能的预警信号是随着气候变异性的增加，生态系统的变异性随着时间的推移而增加。然而，确定气候变化对群落稳定性的影响需要对结构和潜在动态进行长期研究，包括自然生态系统中自下而上和自上而下的影响。虽然相关的数据集是罕见的，在早期的社区生态学，这样的信息在近几十年来有所增加。我们调查了时空变化的平均值和变化的生态补贴（营养物质，浮游植物，猎物殖民化），性能指标的占主导地位的空间占用者（贻贝）和它的主要捕食者（海星），和海星星捕食率贻贝的气候振荡，温度和疾病的岩石海岸。该研究涉及每年重复的多年（~1999-2018），多站点（13个站点嵌套在沿着俄勒冈州海岸约260公里的五个区域内）观测，测量和实验。我们分析了环境变量和关键元素的生态性能之间的关联海星星-贻贝为主的中潮间带系统。我们发现，上升流在某些地区下降，但在所有研究区域变得更加多变。空气和水温振荡，但它们的平均值和变化随着时间的推移而增加，峰值与2014-2016年厄尔尼诺和海洋热浪相结合。生态补贴在研究期间普遍下降，但增加了可变性。除了生长速度，贻贝（贻贝加州）的性能（条件指数，繁殖输出）普遍下降，变得更加多变。由于一场海星星星消耗病的流行，顶级捕食者赭腹鱼的生殖产量下降，并变得更加多变，对贻贝的捕食率下降。分析表明，这些变化的主要驱动因素是与温度相关的环境因素。由于生态表现的手段下降和变异性增加可能会破坏生态系统的稳定，环境趋势正朝着更加紧张的条件发展，这一标志性生态系统的前景令人沮丧。立即和迅速采取行动缓解并最终扭转气候变化可能是防止这一生态系统和大多数其他生态系统未来发生不可逆转的变化的唯一选择。
Ecosystem stability has intrigued ecologists for decades, and the realization that the global climate was changing has sharpened and focused this interest. One possible early warning signal of decreasing stability is increasing variability in ecosystems over time with increasing climate variability. Determining climate change effects on community stability, however, requires long‐term studies of structure and underlying dynamics, including bottom‐up and top‐down effects in natural ecosystems. Although relevant datasets were rare in the early years of community ecology, such information has increased in recent decades. We investigated spatiotemporal changes in mean and variability of ecological subsidies (nutrients, phytoplankton, prey colonization), performance metrics of a dominant space occupier (mussels) and its primary predator (sea stars), and sea star predation rates on mussels in relation to climatic oscillations, temperature, and disease on rocky shores. The research involved annually repeated multiyear (~1999–2018), multisite (13 sites nested within five regions along ~260 km of the Oregon coast) observations, measurements, and experiments. We analyzed associations between environmental variables and ecological performance of key elements of the sea star‐mussel‐dominated mid intertidal system. We found that upwelling declined in some regions, but became more variable across all study regions. Air and water temperatures oscillated, but their mean and variation increased through time, with peak values coinciding with the 2014–2016 combined El Niño and Marine Heat Wave. Ecological subsidies generally declined during the study period but increased in variability. Excepting growth rate, mussel (Mytilus californianus) performance (condition index, reproductive output) generally decreased and became more variable. Primarily due to a sea star wasting epidemic, reproductive output of the top predatorPisaster ochraceusdecreased and became more variable, and predation rate on mussels decreased. Analyses indicated that the primary drivers of these changes were temperature‐related environmental factors. As declining means and increasing variability of ecological performances can typify destabilizing ecosystems, and environmental trends are toward ever more stressful conditions, the outlook for this iconic ecosystem is discouraging. Immediate and rapid action to mitigate and ultimately reverse climate change likely is the only option available to prevent an irreversible shift in the future of this, and most other ecosystems.