Assessment of interannual ozone variation in urban areas from a climatological perspective
Assessment of interannual ozone variation in urban areas from a climatological perspective
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DOI：
10.1016/1352-2310(95)00346-0
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发表时间：
1996-07-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Chu, SH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cox, WM;Chu, SH
在美国的许多城市地区测量的环境臭氧的频率分布每年都有很大的变化，这使得对潜在臭氧趋势的评估变得困难和不准确。此外，这些变化可能导致用于评估臭氧空气质量状况的统计措施的不稳定性，并可能在设计稳健的基于模型的战略以达到国家环境空气质量标准（NPLAQS）方面造成困难。臭氧的年际变化大部分可归因于控制臭氧积累的气象条件的变化。将每日臭氧水平与每日气象变量的变化联系起来的统计模型已被证明是减少臭氧趋势评估中的偏差和不精确性的有效工具。通过将统计模式与气候数据相结合，我们开发了一种方法来计算那些没有臭氧测量数据的年份的臭氧生成潜势。计算出的年度臭氧潜势分布有助于将最近几个臭氧季节的相对严重程度与过去四十年的臭氧潜势进行对比。这些结果对过去十年中观察到的臭氧季节更为严重的重现频率以及从历史角度看待最近的臭氧趋势具有影响。
The frequency distribution of ambient ozone measured in many urban areas of the U.S. varies considerably from year to year, which makes assessment of underlying ozone trends difficult and imprecise. Moreover, these variations can lead to instability in statistical measures used to assess the status of ozone air quality and can create difficulties in designing robust model-based strategies to attain the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NPLAQS). Much of the interannual variation in ozone can be attributed to variations in meteorological conditions that control ozone accumulation. A statistical model that relates daily ozone levels to variations in daily meteorological variables has been proved to be an effective tool for reducing bias and imprecision in ozone trend assessments. By combining the statistical model with climatological data, a method has been developed for calculating the ozone formation potential for those years when ozone measurements were not available. Calculated distributions of annual ozone potential are useful for contrasting the relative severity of recent ozone seasons with ozone potential over the past four decades. The results have implications for the return frequency of the more severe ozone seasons observed in the past decade and for placing recent trends in ozone in historical perspective.