Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities
Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities
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DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.aau4373
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发表时间：
2019-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Williams, Gethin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lo, Y. T. Eunice;Mitchell, Daniel M.;Williams, Gethin
目前的温室气体减排雄心与比工业化前水平高出3摄氏度的全球平均变暖水平相一致。显然有必要加强缓解雄心，以稳定气候，达到《巴黎协定》升温低于2摄氏度的目标。我们具体说明了3摄氏度轨迹和2摄氏度至1.5摄氏度升温之间的城市层面与高温相关死亡率的差异。我们聚焦于可获得可靠气候和健康数据的15个美国城市，表明逐步提高缓解雄心以达到2摄氏度的门槛，可以在极端事件期间(30年重现期)避免每个城市70至1980年间与高温有关的死亡。达到1.5摄氏度的门槛可以避免每年110至2720例与高温有关的死亡。人口变化和适应投资将改变这些数字。我们的结果提供了令人信服的证据，证明在美国将全球变暖控制在1.5摄氏度以内可以带来与高温相关的健康益处。
Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with similar to 3 degrees C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2 degrees C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3 degrees C trajectory and warming of 2 degrees and 1.5 degrees C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2 degrees C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5 degrees C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C in the United States.