Using a hierarchical model framework to assess climate change and hydropower operation impacts on the habitat of an imperiled fish in the Jinsha River, China
Using a hierarchical model framework to assess climate change and hydropower operation impacts on the habitat of an imperiled fish in the Jinsha River, China
复制标题
使用分层模型框架评估气候变化和水电运营对中国金沙江濒危鱼类栖息地的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.318
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Lu Jianzhong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang Peng;Qiao Ye;Schineider Matthias;Chang Jianbo;Mutzner Raphael;Fluixa Sanmartin Javier;Yang Zhi;Fu Rao;Chen Xiaojuan;Cai Lu;Lu Jianzhong
气候变化和水电作业影响区域流域尺度上的水文状况，并影响河段尺度上生物群的水动力和生境条件。本研究提出了一个分层建模框架，用于预测和分析气候变化和水电对鱼类栖息地的影响。该方法耦合了多尺度气候、水文、水温、水动力和生境适宜性模型，并应用于金沙江河段。在一个基线情景和三个气候变化情景下，对研究区域的流量和水温进行了预测，每个情景都考虑了水电运行造成的影响的存在和不存在。采用基于模糊逻辑的栖息地模型，研究了流量和水温变化对金沙江流域濒危暖水鱼(Coreius guichenoti，JRB)产卵和幼鱼的影响。结果表明，气候变化增加了该鱼的栖息地适宜性和可利用面积，水温升高是主要影响因素。产卵期水电作业导致水温下降，导致可利用栖息地面积减少。然而，气候变化减少了水电运行产生的负面影响，在未来气候变化和水电运行的共同影响下，预计鱼类的可用栖息地面积仍将增加。据预测，气候变化导致的水变暖可能会消除水电作业对金枪鱼以及JRB其他暖水鱼物种产生的产卵延迟效应。相反，气候变化引起的水变暖可能会加剧水电运行对JRB冷水鱼种产卵活动的负面影响。本研究提供了一种预测气候变化和水电对河流生态系统中其他生物的影响的方案。研究结果有助于制定水生生态系统的长期、适应性保护和恢复措施。
Climate change and hydropower operations affect hydrological regimes at regional basin scales and impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. The present study proposes a hierarchical modeling framework for predicting and analyzing the impacts of climate change and hydropower on fish habitats. The approach couples multi-scale climate, hydrological, water temperature, hydrodynamic and habitat suitability models and was applied to a reach of the Jinsha River. Flow discharge and water temperature were predicted in the study area for a baseline scenario and three climate change scenarios, and each considered the presence and absence of impacts caused by hydropower operation. The impacts of flow discharge and water temperature variations on spawning and juvenileCoreius guichenoti, an imperiled warm-water fish in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB), were evaluated using a fuzzy logic-based habitat model. The results showed that habitat suitability and available usable area for the fish increased due to climate change, and water temperature rising was the main influencing factor. Water temperature decrease induced by hydropower operation in the spawning periods resulted in the reduction of available habitat area. However, climate change reduced the negative effects generated by hydropower operation, and the available habitat area for the fish would still be expected to increase under the combined impacts of climate change and hydropower operation in the future. It is predicted that water warming, as a result of climate change, is likely to eliminate the spawning postponement effect generated by hydropower operation onCoreius guichenotias well as other warm-water fish species in the JRB. In contrast, water warming induced by climate change is likely to exacerbate the negative effects of hydropower operation on the spawning activity of cold-water fish species in the JRB. The present study provides a scheme to predict the impacts of climate change and hydropower on other organisms in river ecosystems. The results are beneficial for the development of long-term and adaptive conservation and restoration measures for aquatic ecosystems.