Experience-based and description-based perceptions of long-term risk: Why global warming does not scare us (yet)
Experience-based and description-based perceptions of long-term risk: Why global warming does not scare us (yet)
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-006-9060-3
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发表时间：
2006-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Weber, Elke U.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Weber, Elke U.
许多国家的政府和公民对气候变化及其后果漠不关心，这不足为奇。过去30年的行为决策研究提供了一系列关于情感在感知风险和决定采取行动以减少或管理感知风险方面的重要性的教训。来自多个领域的证据表明，担忧会推动风险管理决策。当人们对风险或危险没有警觉时，他们就不采取预防措施。最近的个人经历会强烈影响对风险选择的评估。平均而言，低概率事件引起的关注比它们的概率所应引起的关注少，但在极少数情况下，当它们确实发生时，引起的关注却比它们应有的多。在世界许多地区，对全球变暖的显著和严重后果的个人经验仍然很少。当人们根据他人提供的对危险的统计描述做出决定时，被确定为心理风险维度的危险特征可以预测不同类别的风险在警报或担忧方面的差异。全球变暖风险的时滞性、抽象性和通常的统计性质不会引起强烈的本能反应。这些结果表明，我们应该找到方法，唤起人们对全球变暖风险的本能反应，也许可以通过模拟其对人们的家园或他们访问或重视的其他地区的具体未来后果。然而，对全球变暖的日益关注需要谨慎地征求意见，以防止对其他相关风险的关注减少。产生对全球变暖的担忧或关注可能是公众采取可取或适当的保护或缓解行为的必要条件，但不是充分条件。
It should come as no surprise that the governments and citizenries of many countries show little concern about climate change and its consequences. Behavioral decision research over the last 30 years provides a series of lessons about the importance of affect in perceptions of risk and in decisions to take actions that reduce or manage perceived risks. Evidence from a range of domains suggests that worry drives risk management decisions. When people fail to be alarmed about a risk or hazard, they do not take precautions. Recent personal experience strongly influences the evaluation of a risky option. Low-probability events generate less concern than their probability warrants on average, but more concern than they deserve in those rare instances when they do occur. Personal experience with noticeable and serious consequences of global warming is still rare in many regions of the world. When people base their decisions on statistical descriptions about a hazard provided by others, characteristics of the hazard identified as psychological risk dimensions predict differences in alarm or worry across different classes of risk. The time-delayed, abstract, and often statistical nature of the risks of global warming does not evoke strong visceral reactions. These results suggest that we should find ways to evoke visceral reactions towards the risk of global warming, perhaps by simulations of its concrete future consequences for people's home or other regions they visit or value. Increased concern about global warming needs to solicited carefully, however, to prevent a decrease in concern about other relevant risks. The generation of worry or concern about global warming may be a necessary but not sufficient condition for desirable or appropriate protective or mitigating behavior on part of the general public.