Probabilistic approach of water residence time and connectivity using Markov chains with application to tidal embayments
Probabilistic approach of water residence time and connectivity using Markov chains with application to tidal embayments
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jmarsys.2015.09.002
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发表时间：
2016-01-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Guyondet, T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bacher, C.;Filgueira, R.;Guyondet, T.
最近提出的马尔可夫链分析，通过计算停留时间，首次通过时间，节点之间的传输速率和阳极通道数来评估进入生物或物理网络的时间尺度和优先路径。我们建议，以适应算法已经公布的简单系统的物理系统描述的高分辨率的流体动力学模型。该方法适用于海湾和河口在加拿大东海岸的贝类水产养殖的利益。通过使用二维网格单元计算了流速，并通过平均相邻单元之间的欧拉流来总结环流模式。流量和体积允许计算元素之间的转移概率，并评估虚拟粒子从一个元素移动到另一个元素所需的平均时间，两个元素之间的转移速率以及每个系统的平均停留时间。我们还结合传输速率和时间来评估虚拟颗粒在养殖区释放的主要途径以及养殖区对其他区域的潜在影响。我们认为，马尔可夫链是互补的其他生态指标集提出分析耕地之间的相互作用-例如，耗竭指数、承载力评估。马尔可夫链在估计两个站点之间的连通性方面有几个优点。它可以以非常快速和有效的方式立即估计传输速率和时间，而不需要执行粒子或示踪剂浓度的长期模拟。(C)2015 Elsevier B. V.版权所有。
Markov chain analysis was recently proposed to assess the time scales and preferential pathways into biological or physical networks by computing residence time, first passage time, rates of transfer between nodes and number of passages in anode. We propose to adapt an algorithm already published for simple systems to physical systems described with a high resolution hydrodynamic model. The method is applied to bays and estuaries on the Eastern Coast of Canada for their interest in shellfish aquaculture. Current velocities have been computed by using a 2 dimensional grid of elements and circulation patterns were summarized by averaging Eulerian flows between adjacent elements. Flows and volumes allow computing probabilities of transition between elements and to assess the average time needed by virtual particles to move from one element to another, the rate of transfer between two elements, and the average residence time of each system. We also combined transfer rates and times to assess the main pathways of virtual particles released in farmed areas and the potential influence of farmed areas on other areas. We suggest that Markov chain is complementary to other sets of ecological indicators proposed to analyse the interactions between farmed areas - e.g., depletion index, carrying capacity assessment. Markov chain has several advantages with respect to the estimation of connectivity between pair of sites. It makes possible to estimate transfer rates and times at once in a very quick and efficient way, without the need to perform long term simulations of particle or tracer concentration. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.