Impact of climate change, weather extremes, and price risk on global food supply.
Impact of climate change, weather extremes, and price risk on global food supply.
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DOI：
10.1007/s41885-017-0005-2
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发表时间：
2017-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
von Braun, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Haile, M. G.;Wossen, T.;von Braun, J.
我们分析了1961-2013年期间全球玉米、小麦、水稻和大豆产量的决定因素。利用国家层面的季节性生产数据、价格变化和价格波动信息，以及来自32个全球环流模型的未来气候数据，我们预测，气候变化可能会在本世纪30年代使全球农作物产量减少9%，在2050年代减少23%。气候变化导致未来40年全球农作物产量的年波动性增加1-3%。我们发现，对所有四种作物的价格变化，供应都有很强的、积极的、统计上显著的反应。然而，向生产者发出风险信号的产出价格波动，减少了这些关键的全球主要农业作物的供应--尤其是小麦和玉米。我们发现，气候变化对世界主要粮食作物的生产产生了严重的不利影响。特别是，作物生长月份的极端天气--在温度和降水方面的冲击--对上述粮食作物的生产产生了不利影响。极端天气还加剧了粮食供应年复一年的波动，从而可能进一步增加价格波动，对生产和贫穷的消费者产生不利影响。因此，利用减缓和适应技术应对气候变化对全球生产至关重要，因此对粮食安全也至关重要。
We analyze the determinants of global crop production for maize, wheat, rice, and soybeans over the period 1961-2013. Using seasonal production data and price change and price volatility information at country level, as well as future climate data from 32 global circulation models, we project that climate change could reduce global crop production by 9% in the 2030s and by 23% in the 2050s. Climate change leads to 1-3% higher annual fluctuations of global crop production over the next four decades. We find strong, positive and statistically significant supply response to changing prices for all four crops. However, output price volatility, which signals risk to producers, reduces the supply of these key global agricultural staple crops-especially for wheat and maize. We find that climate change has significant adverse effects on production of the world's key staple crops. Especially, weather extremes - in terms of shocks in both temperature and precipitation - during crop growing months have detrimental impacts on the production of the abovementioned food crops. Weather extremes also exacerbate the year-to-year fluctuations of food availability, and thus may further increase price volatility with its adverse impacts on production and poor consumers. Combating climate change using both mitigation and adaptation technologies is therefore crucial for global production and hence food security.